Weekly Newsletter 09/03/12
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  
 
The NASDAQ Composite continued to move sideways in what we call a flat base pattern. Market participants were cautious because of ambiguous messages from the presidents of our own Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Both have made statements promising to act, if necessary, without explaining exactly when and how action will occur. With upside and downside risks assessed as approximately equal, this left the bulls and bears in a standoff.
NASDAQ Composite

However, as I write this, Bloomberg is reporting
 "European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told lawmakers he’d be comfortable buying bonds with maturities of up to about three years, said Jean-Paul Gauzes, a member of the European Parliament."
and European stock markets are rising on the expectation that stimulus measures will be announced this week in Europe and China. This raises the likelihood that the NASDAQ will test resistance at 3100 on Tuesday and possibly break out.
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week.
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

No tip this week.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 13090.8 -0.51% 7.15% Down
NASDAQ 3066.96 -0.09% 17.73% Down
S&P 500 1406.58 -0.32% 11.85% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Russell 2000
0.33 %		 NASDAQ Composite
11.63 %		 NASDAQ Composite
3.05 %		 NASDAQ Composite
17.73 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Aerospace/Defense - Major Diversified Aerospace/Defense - Major Diversified Building Materials Wholesale Building Materials Wholesale
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Medical Practitioners
+ 54		 Jewelry Stores
+ 61		 Home Health Care
+ 125		 Dairy Products
+ 187
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 10 14.46 3.26% 2.64%
Last Week 14 14 6.04% 4.35%
13 Weeks 202 15.15 13.29%
 7.78%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall SYPR Sypris Solutions, Inc. 105
Top Technical SYPR Sypris Solutions, Inc. 105
Top Fundamental CAP CAI International Inc 50
Top Tech. & Fund. BCEI Bonanza Creek Energy Inc 50
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall THLD Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 90
Top Technical THLD Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 90
Top Fundamental LUX Luxottica Group SpA (ADR) 42
Top Tech. & Fund. LUX Luxottica Group SpA (ADR) 42
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.
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