| How to Use our Site | © 2003-2006
BreakoutWatch.com |
| |
| Methodology Overview |
| At
the close of each trading day, we use our proprietary computer algorithm
to scan our database for stocks setting up in cup with handle, double
bottom or flat base patterns. Stocks which meet our minimum price
and average daily volume
requirements are selected based on their technical condition alone. That
is, if they meet a minimum RS Rank (showing price outperformance against
other stocks) and are currently tracing one of the patterns, they
are identified and placed on our CwHWatch, FBWatch or DBWatch watchlists.
Each stock in these lists is currently in a base and may be setting
up for an impending breakout during the next trading day.
For a review of the methodologies used to select stocks for the three
BreakoutWatch chart patterns, see:
Cup-with-Handle
Methdology, Double-Bottom
Methodology and Flat Base Methodology
As soon as the new watchlists are prepared, we email a report entitled “Today's
Breakouts and Top Ten Report” to each subscriber. This report summarizes
the day's trading activity against the previous evening's watchlist and
informs you that the new watchlist is ready for you to review in anticipation
of the next trading day. In order to review the watchlist in its entirety,
you will need to visit the site. You may notice that we do not require that a stock meet certain fundamental requirements if it is to be included on a watchlist. We do this for several reasons.
- First, it is our intent to identify intermediate-term
technical patterns used
for trading breakouts. We do this in an 'agnostic' manner, identifying
potential breakouts regardless of their underlying business condition.
This ensures that we are identifying all stocks on the move based on
the market's interpretation of their worth rather than our own personal
preferences.
- Second, fundamental reporting is a lagging indicator and
we believe that technical condition will often speak for a stock before
financial reports or news 'explain' the reason for the move.
- Third, for those who follow a growth-oriented investment strategy,
we have found that many of the fundamental guidelines
are open to subjective interpretation. By automatically identifying
stocks for inclusion on a watchlist based solely on objective technical
conditions,
we do not introduce unnecessary bias. We then allow the user to interpret
the fundamentals and make their purchase decisions based on their personal
preferences and investing goals.
We have eliminated the most time consuming task in an intermediate
term growth stock investing strategy by
automatically identifying stocks setting up for a potential breakout on
the following trading day. Given a set of potential breakout candidates,
you may then choose which stocks to pursue based on your risk tolerance,
fundamental requirements and personal preferences. Our tools have
been designed to streamline this process for you, meaning the time you
spend making a purchase decision is significantly reduced. Our automated
intraday breakout alerts then ensure that you will not miss a buying opportunity
when your stocks of choice stage their breakout move.
|
| Using the Site: Two Approaches |
| Following
are two alternate approaches to making purchase decisions. With either
approach, remember that the market backdrop should also be favorable
before entering new long positions. A review of our market analysis
page will give you an excellent picture of the current state of the
markets.
While we have given you an idea of the time you would spend
with each approach,
the more
due
diligence
you perform on a stock, the more time you will spend. Once you have
completed the initial due diligence, the review process will take
less time if the stock makes a subsequent appearance on a watchlist.
Also, the more proficient you become at using the available site
resources, the more quickly you will be able to review any one stock.
While the Investor's Business Daily tells you their approach will
take “20 minutes a day,” this generally refers only to the first
step, that is, identifying potential candidates. It does not take
into account the time it then takes to review each chart to determine
if the stock is setting up in a basing pattern, to identify a pivot
point, to review the fundamentals, to perform due diligence, check
charts of other stocks in the same industry to assess the overall
technical condition of the industry, and to check the industry direction
and rank. It also does not take into account the time it takes to
review each candidate's daily price/volume action to determine if
it has broken out of a basing pattern. |
| Approach 1—Total time for all steps, approximately 20 minutes per day |
|
Summary: The timely identification of a stock nearing an impending
breakout is performed automatically using our watchlist
creation
methodology.
Review the
stocks in each new BreakoutWatch
prior to the following
day's market
open, narrow your candidate list using the filter tools provided,
pre-select desired candidates to pursue, and then purchase
when/if a breakout alert
is
issued.
Step 1:
This approach begins at the end of the market day with the publishing
of our newest three BreakoutWatch lists. When you receive 'Today's
Breakouts and Top Ten Report' you will know that the newest
watchlists have been prepared. This is dated for the end
of day close
to
which it corresponds and is then used for trading on the
following market day.
In this example, the end of day email report summarizes
breakouts and attempted breakouts during trading on 6/30/03
and indicates new watchlists prepared as of the 7/1/03 market
close are available at the site. These watchlists are used
for trading on 7/2/03:
Sample
End of Day email Summary Report
Step 2:
Go to the site and view the BreakoutWatch. Use this to make
a more
thorough comparison of all the stocks currently setting up
for a potential breakout on the following trading day.
Here is CwH BreakoutWatchSM for 7/1/03, comprised of
a 99 total stocks in cup with handle bases:
Sample
BreakoutWatchSM
Step 3:
Use the list filtering feature to narrow the view of stocks
to those most closely meeting your personal trading preferences.
The following is not a set of recommended filters, but instead,
an example of how one might use the filters to focus on stocks
most nearly meeting their trading strategy. (Note: while
all subscribers can view the full watchlist contents, only
Platinum subscribers can use the on site filtering features.)
For example, if I preferred to restrict my purchases on
the following day to those stocks which have a non-laggard
RSRank of 70 or better, with handles of at least 5 days (which
is the minimum recommended by William O'Neil for a lower
risk breakout), with fundamental scores (CEF) that meet at
least the top half of all possible points (maximum 11 points),
with Chart Qualtiy (CQ) scores of at least 1.0 (lower scores
tend to indicate lower quality bases), and in industries
that have not fallen in Rank more than 15 spots, the filters
would result in the following list of 20 stocks:
Sample
Filters
When you have found a set of filters which you believe most
closely match your personal preferences, you can save them
for future visits to the site. (Available to Platinum subscribers
only.)
Filters
Overview
You may also find it helpful to sort the list. Click on the
column header for any column to perform a sort. For example,
you can sort by total CE score or on the Chart Quality (CQ)
score to bring stocks with higher values to the top of the
list.
Step 4: Review the charts of the remaining stocks and eliminate any stocks with flawed bases from consideration. (Note: We create a cached version of the chart for stocks on the watchlist so that charts are displayed very quickly.) The charts automatically display the left cup, base low and pivot point (breakout price) for each stock.
Sample
Chart Step 5: For those stocks which remain, click on the CE score and review the details for the stock. Stocks which fall into the green CE Zone contain the best combination of both fundamental and technical characteristics. Review the fundamental details and eliminate any stocks which do not meet your preferred personal minimums or that show potential red flags. For example, while sales and earnings growth rates may still be high enough to warrant a high fundamental (CEF) score, they may not be accelerating at a rate you prefer. You might want to eliminate this candidate in favor of another watchlist candidate with a higher rate of accelerating earnings and sales.
Sample
CE Detail If desired, use the provided links in the CE Detail to perform a more in-depth due diligence. These can provide clues as to the company's core competencies, competitive positioning, and accounting practices. You can also use this process to look for both accounting and/or business red flags such as SEC investigations, class-action law suits, other material legal proceedings, adverse news, etc. For a review of the Methodology used for CANTATA Evaluator (CE) scoring see: CE Methodology
CE Scoring Summary
CE Zone Methodology
Step 6: While viewing the CE Detail, click on the Industry Name and view the list of stocks within the industry. This will give you an idea as to whether the stock is a leader or a laggard within the group with respect to RSRank, fundamentals (CEF), and/or overall technical condition (CET). You might choose to eliminate a stock from consideration in favor of other watchlist candidates that possess better leadership characteristics.
Sample
Industry Components Listing Step 7: While viewing the CE Detail, click on the Industry Rank and view the history of the stock's Industry over the last year. In the near term, this will give you a generalized view of the technical condition of all stocks in the same group. You can use this view to assess whether the stock comes from an industry group rising in overall technical condition and/or rank. Look for signs that the technical condition of the group might be rolling over (deteriorating). You may want to eliminate a stock in favor of another watchlist candidate that comes from a stronger group.
Sample
Industry Chart For a review of the Methodolgy used for Industry ranking and scoring, see: Industry Rank and Industry Score Methodology
Step 8: Now that you have assembled a list of candidates, wait for them to break out of their basing pattern before making a purchase.
Gold and Platinum subscribers automatically receive
intraday email alerts as each stock attempts a breakout. Platinum
subscribers can choose to receive alerts on all stocks or
only on those stocks meeting their saved preferred filters.
Sample
email Alert These alerts can also be viewed on the site itself by selecting the Alerts menu from the home page:
Sample
Site Alerts Summary
If you are a Silver subscriber, you will either need to review
the end of day email report, review the day's breakouts by
viewing the Breakout Report, or monitor these stocks on your
own. If you use an end-of-day approach in order to confirm
a breakout
before
entering
a new
position, there is a risk that the stock will already be extended
before the next day's market open.
Sample
End of Day E-Mail Breakout Report
Sample
Breakout Report Step 9: Once you have purchased a stock, monitor the open position for potential sell rule violations. If you are unable to monitor the stock regularly during the day, place a protective stop order with your broker to protect yourself from sudden downswings.
For an overview of sell rules as suggested by William J. O'Neil,
see this
link .
|
| Approach 2 – Total time for all steps, approximately 10 minutes per day |
| Summary:
The timely identification of a stock nearing an impending
breakout
is performed automatically using our watchlist
creation
methodology and an intraday alert automatically notifies you
that a stock is attempting a breakout on volume. On receipt
of an email breakout alert, review the chart, review
the
CE
Detail,
make
a purchase
decision.
(Note: This approach requires a Gold or Platinum subscription
which includes email alerts)
Step 1: Review the email alert when received to assess whether the stock is one that you would be willing to purchase. Step 2: Click on the chart link within the email to review the chart for potential technical flaws. (See Step 4 under Approach 1) Step 3: Click on the CE Detail link within the email to review the stock's fundamental and technical characteristics. Assuming you have previously performed a more in-depth due diligence on the stock, this quick review may be sufficient. Use the “News” link to find any current news of importance. (See step 5 under Approach 1) Step 4: While viewing the CE Detail, click on the Industry Name and view the list of stocks within the industry to determine whether the stock is a leader or laggard. (See step 6 under Approach 1) Step 5: While viewing the CE Detail, click on the Industry Rank and view the history of the stock's Industry over the last year. (See step 7 under Approach 1) Step 6: Make a final purchase decision. Step 7: Once you have purchased a stock, monitor the open position for potential sell rule violations. If you are unable to monitor the stock regularly during the day, place a protective stop order with your broker to protect yourself from sudden downswings. |
| Approach 1 vs. Approach 2 |
Approach 1 follows a more conservative approach to making a purchase decision. Each of the steps described is designed to give you the best overall risk assessment of the stock and to give you a means of comparing one purchase option against another. We consider it to be the more comprehensive approach overall. While Approach 2 also has risk assessment steps included, it does not provide an opportunity to compare one stock against another and therefore, does not give you the chance to wait for a stock that may be a better candidate to break out at a later time. We consider this to be the riskier of the two strategies. You may want to combine the two approaches depending on the time you have available, your risk tolerance, and your overall familiarity with a stock and its industry. |
CAN
SLIM® is a trademark of Data Analysis, Inc.
CANTATA Evaluator (CE)SM, Right Cup Quality (RCQ)SM,
Handle Quality (HQ)SM, and Chart Quality (CQ)SM are
servicemarks of breakoutwatch.com |