|Weekly Newsletter 02/04/06|
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Investors were disappointed this week when the Federal Reserve failed to signal
that interest rate increases were at an end. Although Tuesday's statement
from the Open Markets Committee implied that further increases may be necessary
rather than affirming that they would be necessary, there were indications
on Thursday that inflationary pressures may be building through reduced productivity
which left investors much less certain that interest rate increases were over
for now. This coincided with two high profile companies, Google amd Amazon,
missing their earnings expectations and the major indexes dropped sharply
on Thursday and Friday. The result was the second losing week for the year
with the DJI dropping back 1.04%, the NASDAQ Composite losing 1.81% and the
S&P 500 slipping 1.53%.
There is some uncertainty as to what the distribution day count actually is. IBD has diminished the importance of the 1/25 and 2/2 distribution days. On 1/26 it said "IBD counts distribution days on the market when the major indexes notch a significant decline in heavier trade. A mild 0.2% loss doesn't fit that description". But when they did get heavier trade as on 2/2 they said "The higher volume marked a distribution day for the Nasdaq by the letter of the rule. But you might have expected a more pronounced surge in volume given the size of the market's losses." This leaves us wondering what they consider a 'significant' price change and a 'pronounced' volume change? Investors.com defines distribution as "Distribution in the stock market refers to the selling of stock by large institutions. Distribution is indicated by one or more of the major market indexes closing down on increased volume from the previous day." That seems pretty clear and that's the definition we operate by. Moreover, when volumes are above average we think its obvious that institutions are active in the market so if the market drops on heavier volume that means that institutions are selling overall and the market is undergoing distribution.
|New Features this Week||Additional Value that we added this week|
There were no new features added this week.
|This Week's Top Tip||Tips for getting the most out of our site|
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|Market Summary||Overview of market direction and industry rotation|
|Weekly Breakout Report||How confirmed breakouts performed this week|
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
|Top Breakout Choices||Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout|
|Top Second Chances||Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range|
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