Weekly Newsletter 10/28/06
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Marketing Help Needed

We are interested in taking to persons with marketing experience who would be interested in assisting us promote the TradeWatch service. We think the returns delivered by a portfolio of TradeWatch stocks (74% y-t-d) are outstanding and worthy of communication to a broader audience. Please email us if you think you can help.

Market Summary

The bulls were delivered a dose of reality on Friday as the Commerce Department reported that third-quarter growth had slowed to its lowest rate in three and a half years and at 1.6% was well below the expected 2% growth rate. A close reading showed that the housing market accounted for most of the drop and other areas, such as consumer spending and business investment actually expanded. This was not sufficient to prevent anxiety building, however, and the DJI and S&P 500 suffered their first losing day of the week. For several years homeowners have been cashing in the increased asset value of their homes through refinancing and many economists believe this has been the engine that has driven the markets higher. Some fear that with that engine sputtering, a recession will follow. This concern is in contrast with the statement issued by the Federal Reserve's open Markets Committee on Wednesday when they said the economy "seems likely to expand at a moderate pace".

For the week the DJI gained 0.73%, the S&P 500 added 0.64% while the NASDAQ Composite which came under distribution on Tuesday and fell again on Friday managed only a 0.36% gain. On Friday stocks closed near their lows of the day so there is the potential for the sell-off to continue on Monday. This tendency could be halted if inflation data, due before the market opens on Monday, shows a continuing decline and corporate earnings continue to deliver better than expected results. Other data likely to influence the market's mood next week are the index of Midwest business activity on Tuesday; the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey on Wednesday, and the ISM's survey on the services, or non-manufacturing, sector on Friday.

The NASDAQ Composite closed at a new 5 year high on Thursday, but closed below its April, 2005 high on Friday. The NASDAQ is lagging behind the larger cap indexes as it has consolidated over the last two weeks (see charts below) while the DJI and S&P 500 continue to trade within their upper 1 and 2 standard deviation Bollinger Bands. While market growth since July has been strong we don't yet see signs that optimism has become overly exuberant. Considering the gains made over the last few months, Friday's retreat is not surprising and may be healthy for the markets if it is constrained to a consolidation rather than a correction.

The number of successful breakouts almost doubled this week to 90. The average gain to week's end was 1.67%, once again easily beating the major indexes. There were some outstanding gains such as Netgear (NTGR) which gained 16.84% after breakout from a cup-with-handle base and Lodgenet (LNET) which also broke out from a cup-with-handle pattern and gained 15.11%. In all, 16 breakouts gained more than 5%.

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 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

Change to minimum RS rank requirement for cup-with-handle and basewatch selection

In view of the unmanageably large number of stocks that are appearing on these lists we have increased the minimum RS rank requirement for these lists as follows:

CwHWatch: minimum RS rank to qualify raised from 70 to 80

Basewatch: minimum RS rank to qualify raised from 60 to 70.

New Industry Grouping structure

Our new structure will go into affect on Wednesday.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

How to understand and use Email Alerts

A question from a subscriber this week showed that there was some misunderstanding about when we send a breakout email alert so we take up the topic here in case the misunderstanding is more widespread.

We send breakout alerts based on stocks on our cup-with-handle, double bottom, flat base and head and shoulder bottom patterns. We send an alert when the projected volume for the day will exceed 1.5 times the average daily volume and the breakout price has been reached. The projected volume is calculated using a straight line projection. For example, if the volume is 100k after 1 hour of trading, then the projected volume will be 6.5 x 100K (the market is open for 6.5 hours).

The purpose of the email is to give a heads up to subscribers that a breakout may be in process, the email does not mean that a breakout has occurred. We call these breakout attempts and at the end of the session there can be one of four outcomes.

  1. The price will stay above the breakout price (BoP) and the final volume will be at least 1.5 times the daily average. This is a confirmed breakout
  2. The volume target is met but the closing price will be below the BoP. This breakout failed on price.
  3. The volume target was not met but the price close above the BoP. This breakout failed on volume.
  4. The breakout can fail on both price and volume.

If you bought on an alert and the breakout was confirmed, then you can congratulate yourself on making a smart move. However, only about 50% of alerts are confirmed, so what should you do if the breakout fails. We looked into this question back in January and published some advice in the newsletter of January 14, "Should You Sell an Unconfirmed Breakout?". Our conclusion was that 62% of failed breakout attempts went on to gain at least 5% over the breakout price, with the best outcome being for those that failed on volume. Sometimes it takes a couple of days or more for the volume to build and we call these 'stealth' breakouts because institutions often accumulate stock over a few days so as not to create a breakout situation. We found that 71% of breakouts that fail on volume go on to at least 5% over their BoP.

On Thursday of this week, there were forty-five breakout alerts. For Gold subscribers who do not have access to filters or personal watchlists, on days like that it is essential that you have created your own paper watchlist of stocks that you would be interested in if they start to breakout. There just isn't enough time to do the due diligence as the alerts hit. You can be guided by some of the work we've published in the newsletter such as the 11/12/2005 issue.

To limit the number of email alerts you receive, Filters and Personal Watchlists are available to Platinum subscribers and allow you to ensure you only get alerts on stocks that meet your personal criteria. This can save you hours of time.

Investment Advisors Using our Service

TradeRight Securities, located in a suburb of Chicago, is a full services investment management company and broker/dealer. They have been a subscriber, and user, of BreakoutWatch.com for some time now. They practice CANTATA and use Breakoutwatch.com as a “research analyst”. You can learn more about TradeRight Securities at: www.traderightsecurities.com. If you’re interested in speaking to a representative, simply call them toll-free at 1-800-308-3938 or e-mail gdragel@traderightsecurities.com.

PivotPoint Advisors, LLC takes a technical approach to investment planning and management. A breakoutwatch.com subscriber since May, 2004, they use breakouts, market signals, and now TradeWatch to enhance returns for their clients. Learn more at http://pivotpointadvisors.net or contact John Norquay at 608-826-0840 or by email at john.norquay@pivotpointadvisors.net.

Note to advisors: If you would like to be listed here, please contact us. As a service to those who subscribe to us, there is no additional charge to be listed here.

Get a 14 day Trial of our premium 'Platinum' service and TradeWatch for just $9.95 and if you subsequently subscribe to any subscription level we will credit your $9.95 to your subscription.

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 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Market1
Signal
Dow 12090.3 0.73% 12.81% enter
NASDAQ 2350.62 0.36% 6.59% enter
S&P 500 1377.34 0.64% 10.34% enter
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
0.73 %
Dow Jones
-0.56 %
NASDAQ Composite
5.05 %
Dow Jones
12.81 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Food-Dairy Products Food-Dairy Products Food-Dairy Products Electr-Laser Systems
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Metal Prds-Distributors
+ 80
Metal Prds-Distributors
+ 108
Comp Software-Desktop
+ 137
Food-Dairy Products
+ 168
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone (similar to IBD). The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 90 43.85 5.09% 1.67%
Last Week 46 40.31 6.06% 1.55%
13 Weeks 595 46.77 10.74%
4.51%
Sector
Industry
Breakout Count for Week
Banks
Banks-Southeast
4
Media
Media-Cable/Satellite TV
4
Steel
Steel -Producers
4
Banks
Banks-West/Southwest
3
Chemical
Chemical-Fertilizers
3
Healthcare
Healthcare-Products
3
Real Estate/ REIT
Real Estate-REIT
3
Telecomm
Telecomm-Wireless Services
3
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense-Equip
2
Computer
Computer-Networking
2
Computer Software
Comp Software-Financial
2
Electronics
Electr-Measuring Instruments
2
Electronics
Electr-Semicndtr Mfg
2
Finance
Finance-Brokers
2
Finance
Finance-Invest Management
2
Healthcare
Healthcare-HMO
2
Healthcare
Healthcare-Biomed/Genetic
2
Insurance
Insurance-Prop/Casualty/TItl
2
Internet
Internet-ISP/Content
2
Metal Prds
Metal Prds-Pipe/Fab/Misc
2
Retail
Retail-Apparel
2
Telecomm
Telecomm-Services Fgn
2
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense-Electr
1
Auto & Truck
Auto & Truck-US & Fgn Mfg
1
Auto & Truck
Auto & Truck-Repl Prts
1
Banks
Banks-Foreign
1
Building
Building-Products/Misc
1
Computer
Computer-Peripheral Equip
1
Computer Software
Comp Software-Enterprise
1
Computer Software
Comp Software-Security
1
Diversified Operations
Diversified Operations
1
Electronics
Electr-Misc Products
1
Finance
Finance-Misc Services
1
Finance
Finance-Savings&Loan
1
Food
Food-Dairy Products
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Instruments
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Outpnt/HmCare
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Drugs/Ethical
1
Insurance
Insurance-Brokers
1
Leisure
Leisure-Services
1
Leisure
Leisure-Toys/Games
1
Machinery
Machinery-Industrial
1
Machinery
Machinery-Machine Tools
1
Office
Office-Equip/Automation
1
Office
Office-Supplies
1
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas-Mach/Equip
1
Paper
Paper
1
Personal
Personal-Tobacco
1
Personal
Personal-Shoes
1
Real Estate/ REIT
Real Estate Management
1
Retail
Retail-Misc/Diversified
1
Retail
Retail-Restaurant
1
Telecomm
Telecomm-Services US
1
Textile
Textile-Apparel Mfg
1
Transportation
Transportation-Rail
1
Transportation
Transportation-Services
1
Transportation
Transportation -Airlines
1
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall PRXI Premier Exhibitions Inc 109
Top Technical CWTR Coldwater Creek Inc 40
Top Fundamental CWTR Coldwater Creek Inc 40
Top Tech. & Fund. CWTR Coldwater Creek Inc 40
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall BVX Bovie Medical Systems 92
Top Technical QDEL Quidel Corp 48
Top Fundamental ISE International Securities Excha 32
Top Tech. & Fund. ISE International Securities Excha 32
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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