|Weekly Newsletter 01/13/07|
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Expectations of an early cut in interest rates to stimulate a flagging economy are now almost extinguished. This expectation helped sustain stock prices in recent weeks but a different dynamic is now fueling the New Year rally. Retail sales in December announced on Friday were markedly higher than expected showing that consumer spending is still strong. With energy prices falling, it is likely that spending will remain strong as consumers have more disposable income to spend on other goods and services. Lower jobless claims announced on Thursday showed that employment is also holding up, and although there is a potential for wage push inflation stemming from full employment, lower energy prices will provide an offsetting effect. The indications are that the economy is robust and investors are now betting that corporate earnings will remain healthy through 2007, particularly the new economy stocks represented on the NASDAQ. The DJI closed at new highs on Thursday and Friday to gain 0.75% for the week. The NASDAQ was by far the stronger performer, though, with a 2.82% gain for the week as it moved higher each day racking up three accumulation days in succession. The S&P 500 closed 0.88% higher.
Last week we saw a potential head and shoulders pattern developing on the NASDAQ. This pattern is bearish, if completed, but this weeks action first took out the right shoulder resistance on Wednesday and then the head on Friday to set a new 6-year high. The index is now tracking the upper Bollinger Band, and although we might expect a pullback to within the band, the Percent Volume Oscillator (PVO) is above zero indicating that the current upward trend will be maintained in the short term.
The number of breakouts shot up to 40 this week from just 12 last week. Incyte Corp. (INCY) broke out from cup-with-handle formation on Tuesday and gained 18% by Friday's close. INCY was also a pick on our TradeWatch Buy at Open list. Shaw Communications (SJR) also made double digit gains after a cup-with-handle breakout on Wednesday and closed 13.5% higher.
|New Features this Week||Additional Value that we added this week|
There were no new features added this week.
|This Week's Top Tip||Tips for getting the most out of our site|
This week, we look at the factors having the most impact on breakout success. Once again, this topic was suggested by a subscriber and we encourage suggestions for this section of our newsletter.
Recognizing that our subscribers have different investment time frames and that there could be different factors at work in the short, medium and long term, we looked at those factors which were the best predictor of gains achieved over 1 week, 1 month and 1 year. As you might expect, there is some variation in the factors that are important as we look at these different time frames. Technical factors and pattern characteristics tend to be very import in the short term, while fundamental factors begin to have an influence over the medium term although it is the initial boost given by technical factors that are always the most important predictor of the best gains.
The methodology we used for this analysis was a technique called 'stepwise regression'. This is a multiple regression technique which selects the best explanatory variables for a statistical model when there is a large number of potential variables that could influence the dependant variable (see Wikipedia). In our case we have 34 possible explanatory variables to choose. These are listed at the end of this article.
We looked at all cup-with-handle breakouts in the two years 1/2/04 to 12/30/05 and measured the maximum intra-day high achieved within 1 week after breakout, 1 month after breakout and 1 year after breakout. If a breakout failed, that is fell by at least 8% from its breakout price, then it wasn't considered beyond the date on which it failed. For example, if a breakout failed two weeks after its breakout date, then the maximum gain for the 1 month and 1 year time frames was limited to that obtained in the first week. This was so as to exclude cases where a failure subsequently went on to make significant gains over a longer period.
In order of importance, the stepwise regression selected variables in order of importance as follows. Variables not shown were not statistically significant and were excluded by the stepwise process.
As you can understand, the range of gains for each period is quite large as the mean and standard deviation (S.D.) numbers show. The 'Explanatory Power' is a measure of how much variability in the range of gains is explained by the model. We find the following points of most interest:
*Possible Explanatory Variables
Cup with Handle Indicators
Investment Advisors Using our Service
TradeRight Securities, located in a suburb of Chicago, is a full services investment management company and broker/dealer. They have been a subscriber, and user, of BreakoutWatch.com for some time now. They practice CANTATA and use Breakoutwatch.com as a “research analyst”. You can learn more about TradeRight Securities at: www.traderightsecurities.com. If you’re interested in speaking to a representative, simply call them toll-free at 1-800-308-3938 or e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org.
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|Market Summary||Overview of market direction and industry rotation|
|Weekly Breakout Report||How confirmed breakouts performed this week|
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
|Top Breakout Choices||Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout|
|Top Second Chances||Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range|
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