Weekly Newsletter 11/28/08
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  
The markets have now made five successive days of gains with the small cap stocks outperforming their larger cap brethren with technology stocks lagging the field.  In fact, the Russell 2000 has gained an impressive 24.3% from its low of last Friday. Volume was above average on the first two days of trading this week but understandably fell off on Wednesday and Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Is this another bear market rally? Quite possibly because clearly there is further bad news in store for the economy. Nevertheless, the announcement of the Obama economic team was generally well received and confidence has started to return. Improving confidence will reduce volatility so the huge daily swings we have seen may be mitigated now. The actions this week to improve the flow of credit have had a dramatic effect on long term interest rates with 30 year mortgage rates dropping 75 basis points, so we must hope this is a sign that credit is starting to ease. We think that from this point the opportunity for upside gain exceeds the risk of  downside losses and have started to put some money to work in 'value' stocks as these generally are the first to profit from a rebounding market.

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 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week
No new features this week
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site
No new features this week.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 8829.04 4.57% -33.44% Down
NASDAQ 1535.57 4.32% -42.1% Down
S&P 500 896.24 5.22% -38.96% Down
Russell 2000 473.14 8.34% -38.23% Down
Wilshire 5000 8945.22 6.01% -39.64% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Russell 2000
8.34 %
Dow Jones
-23.52 %
Dow Jones
-30.14 %
Dow Jones
-33.44 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Cigarettes Home Health Care Long Distance Carriers REIT - Healthcare Facilities
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
+ 54
+ 99
Long Distance Carriers
+ 213
Long Distance Carriers
+ 210
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 3 12.23 4.56% 4.02%
Last Week 3 13 3.43% 2.75%
13 Weeks 174 13.38 13.87%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall FRBK Republic First Bncp Inc 88
Top Technical SINT Si International 39
Top Fundamental LINC Lincoln Educational Services Corp 68
Top Tech. & Fund. LINC Lincoln Educational Services Corp 68
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall OCN Ocwen Financial Corp 104
Top Technical OCN Ocwen Financial Corp 104
Top Fundamental ALO Alpharma Inc 51
Top Tech. & Fund. ALO Alpharma Inc 51
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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