Weekly Newsletter 01/23/09
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

We are back in a volatile period and attempting to make any prognistications at the present time would be futile. We anticipated a strong bounce after the Inauguration but instead the major indexes gave up considerable ground, 6% and more, despite an accumulation day on Wednesday as more details emerged on the possible stimulus plan.

Instead, we would like to share with you two articles that we found interesting in our reading this week.

The first makes a case for the stock market being a measuring device, not a forecasting tool; that it is measuring sentiment and when sentiment shifts the markets shift also.

Markets Measure; They Don’t Forecast

If, like me, you have been disappointed with the returns from the leveraged ETF's, then the second article gives an excellent, although lengthy, illustration of why you are most likely to lose money if you hold on to them for more than a day.

Warning: Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Kill Portfolios

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week.

We have corrected bugs in the beta HSB backtest script and the Recent breakouts report, which was omitting HSB breakouts.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Breakout Analysis for Year-to-date

The table below shows all the breakouts since the start of the year, their maximum gain to their highest intraday price since breakout and their last closing price as of 1/23/09.

Note that although the most breakouts have come the Head and Shoulders Bottom pattern, the best performers have come from the cup-with-handle pattern. Note also that these stocks have a very high Relative Strength Rank being ranked in the top 10% of all stocks by this measure. That these should be providing the best returns will come as no surprise to our subscribers as we have maintained for many years that the RS Rank is best predictor of performance after breakout.

The most important conclusion to draw from this table is that it is essential to take profits early. The old advice of letting your winners run will probably mean that you will end up with a loss in this volatile market.

B'out
Base
Symbol
B'Out
B'out
Last
Current %
*Gain at
Date


Price
RS
Close
off BOP
Intraday High
01/08/09
APSG
CwH
19.2
98
17.06
-11.15
3.65
01/09/09
PSD
CwH
28
94
28.92
3.29
6.07
01/15/09
CYPB
CwH
8.23
89
8.95
8.75
22.72
01/15/09
ESI
CwH
104.9
98
126.21
20.31
24.65
01/02/09
AVAV
CwH
37.6
99
39.37
4.71
7.71
01/02/09
CBZ
CwH
8.75
93
7.99
-8.69
2.74
01/07/09
JBLU
CwH
7.4
99
6.64
-10.27
4.59
01/05/09
SQNM
CwH
21.5
99
24.85
15.58
20.88
01/16/09
PSD
CwH
28.62
93
28.92
1.05
3.77
01/21/09
IDCC
CwH
28.43
98
31.17
9.64
10.17
01/22/09
SMG
CwH
31.82
97
33.33
4.75
8.61

Average

3.45
10.51








01/06/09
ELX
HSB
7.13
34
6.65
-6.73
8.7
01/06/09
EWU
HSB
12.61
42
10.43
-17.29
5.31
01/06/09
HEW
HSB
28.83
60
26.77
-7.15
3.71
01/21/09
NTRS
HSB
47.2
48
56.55
19.81
23.67
01/15/09
MOLX
HSB
13.63
40
13.4
-1.69
3.96
01/02/09
ELX
HSB
7.13
36
6.65
-6.73
8.7
01/21/09
OHI
HSB
14.32
73
14.7
2.65
3.98
01/05/09
WLL
HSB
38.96
31
33.94
-12.89
15.48
01/15/09
WRC
HSB
18.81
21
20.02
6.43
13.18
01/09/09
CBI
HSB
12.56
21
11.41
-9.16
10.51
01/09/09
ICLR
HSB
21.55
27
19.61
-9
6.68
01/13/09
RMD
HSB
37.33
77
39.07
4.66
5.87
01/07/09
MON
HSB
78.81
52
78.91
0.13
10.8
01/15/09
NUAN
HSB
9.23
47
10.2
10.51
15.28
01/08/09
GYMB
HSB
26.36
58
24.74
-6.15
2.85
Average
-2.17
9.25








01/02/09
ACM
HTF
31.71
97
25.64
-19.14
3.82
01/12/09
DTO
HTF
166.76
99
155.59
-6.7
11.75
01/21/09
TOO
HTF
13.99
75
13.78
-1.5
6.43
01/06/09
MAXY
HTF
9.22
99
8.5
-7.81
2.93
01/02/09
SPWRB
HTF
31.21
91
22.14
-29.06
25.7
01/02/09
RMBS
HTF
16.59
87
8.81
-46.9
12.72
01/02/09
EME
HTF
23.02
83
20.72
-9.99
2.69
01/02/09
DRI
HTF
29.03
87
26.63
-8.27
2.51
Average
-16.17
8.57
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 8077.56 -6.07% -7.96% Down
NASDAQ 1477.29 -6% -6.32% Down
S&P 500 831.95 -6.56% -7.89% Down
Russell 2000 441.45 -8.28% -11.61% Down
Wilshire 5000 8338.9 -7.2% -8.23% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
S&P 500
-2.14 %
Dow Jones
-4.7 %
Dow Jones
-28.96 %
NASDAQ Composite
-6.32 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Long Distance Carriers Long Distance Carriers Long Distance Carriers Long Distance Carriers
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Aluminum
+ 54
Aluminum
+ 99
Long Distance Carriers
+ 213
Long Distance Carriers
+ 210
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 2 4.23 9.39% 7.19%
Last Week 3 4 17.05% 10.04%
13 Weeks 52 4.23 11.6%
-4.75%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall TSYS Telecommunications Systm 110
Top Technical HMSY Hms Holdings Corp 43
Top Fundamental WES WESTERN GAS PARTNERS 77
Top Tech. & Fund. WES WESTERN GAS PARTNERS 77
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Company 44
Top Technical SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Company 44
Top Fundamental SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Company 44
Top Tech. & Fund. SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Company 44
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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