Weekly Newsletter 08/21/09
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  
On Monday we thought that the major indexes were set for a further 2.5% fall before testing support at their previous resistance level, which for the NASDAQ would have been around 1880 following Monday's close. How wrong we were! Since then a reversal in overseas markets, particularly China, and continuing improvement in the Index of Leading Economic Indicators have changed the mood and the indexes have risen each day since concluding on Friday with a surge to new highs of the year on volume that was surprisingly large for a summertime Friday as July sales of existing homes reached the highest level in two years. With these positive signs that the economy is improving, albeit more slowly than anyone would like, we now believe that the rally will continue and investors who still have cash on the sidelines (presumably most of us) will put more into the markets soon, thereby driving prices higher. But, as always, the markets will climb a wall of worry, so some periods of consolidation will be inevitable.

Friday was the 50th Anniversary of Hawaii becoming a State and the boys were out of school so we took the day off. Consequently the newsletter is shorter this week than usual.
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week
No new features this week
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site
This feature wil return next week.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 9505.96 1.98% 8.31% Down
NASDAQ 2020.9 1.78% 28.15% Up
S&P 500 1026.13 2.2% 13.6% Up
Russell 2000 581.51 3.12% 16.43% Up
Wilshire 5000 10552.3 2.12% 16.12% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Russell 2000
3.12 %
Russell 2000
21.75 %
Russell 2000
41.5 %
NASDAQ Composite
28.15 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Auto Dealerships Auto Dealerships Auto Parts Stores Auto Parts Stores
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Aluminum
+ 54
Aluminum
+ 99
Long Distance Carriers
+ 213
Long Distance Carriers
+ 210
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 10 13.31 8.07% 3.91%
Last Week 4 14.46 5.53% 0.47%
13 Weeks 173 14.92 23.82%
12.43%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall TLB Talbots Inc 118
Top Technical PRSC Providence Service Corp The 71
Top Fundamental JOSB Jos A Bank Clothiers 57
Top Tech. & Fund. CBD Companhia Brasiliera De 44
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall GIII G-Iii Apparel Group Inc 82
Top Technical TRAK DealerTrack Holdings Inc 58
Top Fundamental GIII G-Iii Apparel Group Inc 82
Top Tech. & Fund. GIII G-Iii Apparel Group Inc 82
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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