|Weekly Newsletter 05/14/11|
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NASDAQ in Equilibrium (Almost)
The NASDAQ Composite bounced off support at the 2015 level (line B) last week but has been constrained by the descending triangle (line C). A breakout above trend line C would confirm that the rally still has legs despite gathering headwinds (see below) while a fall through support line B would signal weakness and a failure to find support at ascending triangle A would be distinctly bearish.
Speaking of headwinds, here are the threats facing the economy as seen by Peter Brookvar of The Big Picture
1) CPI, PPI continue to rise with CPI now back above 3% y/o/y
2) Inflation takes bite out of April retail sales as sales ex gasoline rise just .2%
3) Initial Jobless Claims above 400k for a 5th straight week and 4 week average now at the highest since Nov
4) Weak US$, energy prices and higher Chinese labor costs lead to 11.1% y/o/y gain in Import Prices
5) NFIB small business optimism index falls to lowest since Sept with most growth categories lower and price index higher
6) BoE’s King says UK in stagflationary environment, is it headed here?
7) Political infighting amongst the EU, IMF, ECB and individual country members continue to drag out the fate of the Greek’s.
I highlighted number seven because the Tea Party wants the US to follow similar austerity measures to the UK which I believe would be disasterous inthe short term.
|New Features this Week||Additional Value that we added this week|
No new features this week.
|This Week's Top Tip||Tips for getting the most out of our site|
I buy almost all my toys - cycling accessories, books, computer hardware, on-line and usually at Amazon.com. They usually have the best prices and free shipping if you spend at least $25 (which encourages you to buy more to meet the threshold - smart). Because of this I had already bought some AMZN stock and was pleased to see the big breakout on 4/27. Unfortunately, AMZN didn't figure on our watchlists on that date because its RS Rank was only 73 and we have a minimum requirement of 80. We did confirm it as a breakout three days later, though.
I think Amazon has a compelling business model with no major competitors and because of the infrastructure they have built. a high barrier to entry. Click this image to see a slide show that shows a breadth to their business that I wasn't aware of amd makes a strong case that there is further value to be derived.
|Market Summary||Overview of market direction and industry rotation|
|Weekly Breakout Report||How confirmed breakouts performed this week|
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
|Top Breakout Choices||Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout|
|Top Second Chances||Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range|
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