Weekly Newsletter 11/11/11
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

As the week ended the markets were becoming calmer following the departure of Greece's Prime Minister on Monday and the impending departure of Italy's Berlusconi this weekend. It remains to be seen if their replacements can make progress on resolving the sovereign debt issues of their respective countries and we seem destined to revisit the problems of restructuring their economies in the not to distant future. At home there was cause for cautious optimism also as the number of new unemployment claims fell below 400,000 and consumer confidence rose in the University of Michigan's monthly survey.

NASDAQ Composite

Our trend indicator for the NASDAQ Composite continues to be positive but the index is moving sideways with the 200 day moving average providing resistance to attempts to move higher. In the last two weeks the index has powered through the 200 day level on stronger volume only to quickly fall back. While we may see further attempts to move higher as the focus on Europe lessens, there looms the pending report to Congress of the "super committee" due by November 23. A failure to produce an agreement will threaten the country's credit rating and likely trigger a big market sell-off.

With Standard and Poor's committing another faux pas on Thursday with the accidental downgrading of France's credit rating, surely the credit rating agency has lost so much credibility that another downgrade of the US will not have the waterfall effect it had in early August, but the damage will nevertheless be severe. The last downgrade reset the NASDAQ's trading range lower by 300 points (10%).

NASDAQ S&P Downgrade

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week but did you check out our Trend Reversal Indicator for individual stocks?

stock TRS
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

This feature will return next week.

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 12153.7 1.42% 4.98% Down
NASDAQ 2678.75 -0.28% 0.98% Up
S&P 500 1263.85 0.85% 0.49% Down
Russell 2000 744.64 -0.25% -4.98% Up
Wilshire 5000 746.49 -94.32% -94.38% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
1.42 %
Dow Jones
7.85 %
Dow Jones
-3.51 %
Dow Jones
4.98 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Specialty Eateries Specialty Eateries Personal Computers Personal Computers
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers
+ 42
Toy & Hobby Stores
+ 153
Toy & Hobby Stores
+ 184
Toy & Hobby Stores
+ 203
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 19 17.15 7.4% 4.3%
Last Week 27 16.38 7.36% 4.01%
13 Weeks 234 17.69 8.67%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc Ordinary Shares (Canada)& 120
Top Technical XRTX Xyratex Ltd.  56
Top Fundamental PCLN priceline.com Incorporated  31
Top Tech. & Fund. PCLN priceline.com Incorporated  31
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall KOG Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp  117
Top Technical TSLA Tesla Motors Inc  52
Top Fundamental TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated  44
Top Tech. & Fund. TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated  44
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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