Weekly Newsletter 11/18/11
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

This month we celebrate our 10th anniversary and we are giving thanks with a Thanksgiving sale.

Watch for big savings that will be announced next week.

The NASDAQ Composite is beginning to show behavior very similar to that just before the last vote to raise the debt ceiling and the subsequent downgrade by Standard and Poors. Notice how there was a double top before the drift down began which ended with a 550 point (19%) loss. The chart looks quite similar as we approach the Super Committee deadline of November 23. There is more choppiness than last time because of the volatility surrounding the European saga, but a similar trend is evident. With only three business days to go before the committee must report to Congress, the signs are that a compromise is not reachable. Of course, these things nearly always get resolved at 1 minute to midnight so a positive outcome is still possible, but if a compromise is not achieved, the 2300 support level could get tested.

NASDAQ Composite

The trend signal for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 continues to be positive although that could change with another losing day. Despite the losses for the indexes for the week, there were some nice gains to be had for the nimble. CFX (Colfax) had an intraday gain of 13.7% from a cup-with-handle base and DLB (Dolby Labs) jumped 15.6% from a Head and Shoulders bottom.

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

A common question from new subscribers is how can they limit the number and type of alerts they receive, so here is a summary of the various options.

The type of alerts you will receive are controlled from the Alert Preferences menu under Take Action - Alerts!. Here you can choose to receive Long position alerts, short position alerts, both or neither.

If you choose to receive alerts for long positions, then you can further refine your selection to restrict alerts by watchlist filters and/or your personal watchlist(s).

Alert Preferences

That will set your alert preferences at the macro level. To limit alerts further you need to go to the individual long position watchlists and set parameters by which to limit the alerts from each list.

Note that the filter settings can be "Active on this watchlist" which is a toggle used to filter the list or not.

When you have the filter settings you want you can save them, and finally you can make them active or not.

filters


 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 11796.2 -2.94% 1.89% Down
NASDAQ 2572.5 -3.97% -3.03% Up
S&P 500 1215.65 -3.81% -3.34% Down
Russell 2000 719.42 -3.39% -8.2% Up
Wilshire 5000 744.64 -94.4% -94.4% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
-2.94 %
Russell 2000
9.05 %
Dow Jones
-5.72 %
Dow Jones
1.89 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Specialty Eateries Specialty Eateries Personal Computers Personal Computers
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 58
Surety & Title Insurance
+ 122
Toy & Hobby Stores
+ 201
Toy & Hobby Stores
+ 192
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 14 18 5.22% 0.32%
Last Week 19 17.15 9.92% 2.56%
13 Weeks 242 18.38 8.79%
-1.86%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc Ordinary Shares (Canada)& 120
Top Technical XRTX Xyratex Ltd.  55
Top Fundamental CBI Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V.  54
Top Tech. & Fund. CBI Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V.  54
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall VITC Vitacost.com, Inc.  107
Top Technical GLNG Golar LNG Limited (USA)  54
Top Fundamental CBM
103
Top Tech. & Fund. CBM
103
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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