Weekly Newsletter 12/16/11
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

No personal commentary this week as we ran out of time for the reason explained below. From the Big Picture we have:

Positives:

1) European bond yields fall across the board and across the curve (except Italian 10 yr)
2) Euro basis swap, euribor/ois spread down a touch on the week
3) Euro zone mfr’g and services composite index unexpectedly rises to 47.9 from 47
4) German ZEW 6 mo expectations outlook up slightly
5) Philly and NY mfr’g survey’s surprise to upside and 6 month outlook improves (what are they seeing?)
6) Initial Claims fall to 366k, the least since May ’08
7) CPI rate of change about in line
8) MBA said refi’s rose to 5 week high
9) Big demand for Treasury auctions of 3′s, 10′s and 30′s
10) No QE3, for now at least. Money printing just a drug and hangover will come anyway at some point
11) China’s HSBC flash mfr’g # rises to 49 from 47.7 but still below 50 for 5th month in past 6

Negatives:

1) Implementation of EU summit agreement easier said than done
2) Euro zone CPI runs 3% y/o/y for 3rd straight month
3) US CPI up 3.4% y/o/y headline, 2.2% core, core rate at most since Oct ’08
4) US retail sales in Nov light vs estimates
5) MBA said purchase apps fall to 4 week low
6) Nov IP unexpectedly falls .1% led by auto’s and nat gas output
7) Shanghai index falls another 4% on week, FDI down 9.8% in Nov, 1st drop since July ’09
8) Indian Sensex drops to lowest since Nov ’09 as Oct IP falls 5.1% vs forecast of .7% fall
9) Japanese Q4 Tankan mfr’g # falls to -4 from +2
10) Solid demand for Treasury’s 3′s, 10′s and 30′s, what does that say about the economic outlook?
11) FOR STOCK MARKETS ONLY, no QE from Fed and ECB


 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

We were hoping to release a new feature that links alerts and the alert monitor to intraday charts but were unable to complete it in time. Should be available by next week.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

No tip this week as ran out of time while working on the intraday charts.

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 11866.4 -2.61% 2.5% Up
NASDAQ 2555.33 -3.46% -3.68% Up
S&P 500 1219.66 -2.83% -3.02% Up
Russell 2000 722.05 -3.13% -7.86% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Wilshire 5000
0 %
Dow Jones
3.1 %
Dow Jones
-1.15 %
Dow Jones
2.5 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Toy & Hobby Stores Toy & Hobby Stores Specialty Eateries Personal Computers
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Consumer Services
+ 72
Publishing - Periodicals
+ 99
Surety & Title Insurance
+ 177
Surety & Title Insurance
+ 192
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 20 21.38 5.37% 4.24%
Last Week 17 21.08 6.29% 0.71%
13 Weeks 293 22 8.4%
-0.77%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall TGE TGC Industries, Inc.  100
Top Technical RPTP Raptor Pharmaceutical Corp.  93
Top Fundamental MELI MercadoLibre, Inc.  41
Top Tech. & Fund. MELI MercadoLibre, Inc.  41
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall PDFS
99
Top Technical WRLS Telular Corporation  71
Top Fundamental INSP InfoSpace, Inc.  69
Top Tech. & Fund. INSP InfoSpace, Inc.  69
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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