Weekly Newsletter 02/17/12
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

It's President's Day weekend and so we are travelling to Oahu for a soccer competition for our younger son. Therefore, no time for analysis but we always find The Big Picture informative. here's their summary of the week's positives and negatives:


1) Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march
2) German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
3)Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since Mar ’08 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
4) Philly and NY mfr’g surveys gain but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
5) Multi family housing starts continue to grow
6) NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
7) India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
8) Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE


1) Greek drama never ending, ECB wants special treatment
2) Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
3) Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
4) Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
5) Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
6) Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
7) US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
8) MBA said purchase apps fell 8.4% on the week to the slowest of the yr
9) While CPI rate of change a touch below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this wek.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

This feature will return next week.

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 12949.9 1.16% 5.99% Down
NASDAQ 2951.78 1.65% 13.31% Up
S&P 500 1361.23 1.38% 8.24% Up
Russell 2000 828.68 1.89% 11.84% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Russell 2000
1.89 %
Russell 2000
15.19 %
Russell 2000
27.16 %
NASDAQ Composite
13.31 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Personal Computers Personal Computers Toy & Hobby Stores Specialty Eateries
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Medical Practitioners
+ 60
Computers Wholesale
+ 61
Major Airlines
+ 194
Residential Construction
+ 213
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 36 26.38 4.89% 1.29%
Last Week 18 24.85 6.1% -1.25%
13 Weeks 353 27.62 12.06%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall PBTH PROLOR Biotech, Inc. 122
Top Technical SOA Solutia Inc 68
Top Fundamental GOLD Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) 40
Top Tech. & Fund. GOLD Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR)
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall PBTH
Top Technical OMER Omeros Corporation  104
Top Fundamental MELI MercadoLibre, Inc.  53
Top Tech. & Fund. MELI MercadoLibre, Inc.  53
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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