Weekly Newsletter 03/10/12
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ Composite found support at the 2900 level and is about to test resistance at 3000. The chart illustrates the often noted point about resistance becoming support and vice-versa (see Why Resistance Becomes Support and Vice Versa). The 2900 level  provided resistance for three days at the beginning of February and then provided support two days later. After reaching the psychologically important resistance level of 3000, the index tested the 2900 support level again and that appears to be a floor under the index for the time being. Although it may take several attempts to break through 3,000, the improving economy will likely keep the current trend in effect. There are significant threats, though. The Atlantic Magazine estimates the chance of war with Iran at an alarming 50-50 and unless tensions over Iran recede, oil prices will rise further and threaten the recovery.

NASDAQ Composite

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Update on Real Time Alerts

Our new realtime alert feed went into production on Monday and indications are that we are now issuing alerts in a timely manner. An analysis of alert times shows that no alerts were issued after 16:00 (4pm EST). The analysis also confirms that the most important time to monitor the market is after the open.

alert times

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 12922 -0.43% 5.77% Down
NASDAQ 2988.34 0.41% 14.71% Up
S&P 500 1370.87 0.09% 9.01% Up
Russell 2000 817 1.82% 10.27% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Russell 2000
1.82 %
NASDAQ Composite
9.61 %
Russell 2000
21.22 %
NASDAQ Composite
14.71 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Medical Practitioners Recreational Vehicles Personal Computers Personal Computers
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Semiconductor - Memory Chips
+ 147
Manufactured Housing
+ 146
Semiconductor - Memory Chips
+ 168
Building Materials Wholesale
+ 200
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 20 26 4.51% 4.04%
Last Week 28 25.77 3.01% -0.4%
13 Weeks 226 27.31 9.74%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall MGIC Magic Software Enterprises Ltd. 107
Top Technical SVVC Firsthand Technology Value Fund, Inc. 60
Top Fundamental DAN Dana Holding Corporation 51
Top Tech. & Fund. DAN Dana Holding Corporation 51
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall MITK Mitek Systems, Inc. 92
Top Technical ERT eResearch Technology Inc. 89
Top Fundamental BECN Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. 61
Top Tech. & Fund. CBD Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao 41
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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