Weekly Newsletter 06/01/12
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You are receiving this email because you are or were a BreakoutWatch.com subscriber, or have subscribed to our weekly newsletter. This newsletter summarizes the breakout events of the week and provides additional guidance that does not fit into our daily format. It is published each weekend.
Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ Composite is testing its 200 day moving average support level. Unless there is some reassuring announcement over the weekend, Monday could be 'black'.

NASDAQ Composite

Our market signals for the DJI and S&P 500 turned positive on Tuesday as our algorithm detected a bottom reversal. Due to the lag inherent in any trend reversal recognition algorithm, the trend signal has not yet reversed although it will very likely do so on Monday unless there is an (unlikely) significant bounce.

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

We have had difficulty getting reliable data, particularly volume, for the Russell 2000 futures charts and have therefore dropped the Russell 2000 from our daily and weekly analysis charts.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

I had hoped to publish a new analysis suggested by a subscriber in this newsletter but was unable to get it completed in time. The analysis proposed was to buy MTC stocks on breakout if they were above both their 8 and 21 day exponential moving average, and the NASADQ was in an uptrend, and to sell when the 8 day ema turned down.

We should be able to complete that by next week.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 12118.6 -2.7% -0.81% Up
NASDAQ 2747.48 -3.17% 5.46% Down
S&P 500 1278.04 -3.02% 1.63% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
-2.7 %
Dow Jones
-7.68 %
NASDAQ Composite
4.59 %
NASDAQ Composite
5.46 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Recreational Vehicles Regional - Southwest Banks Medical Practitioners Home Improvement Stores
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Specialized Health Services
+ 24
Internet Service Providers
+ 87
Diagnostic Substances
+ 131
Building Materials Wholesale
+ 161
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 9 12.69 4.66% 1.88%
Last Week 10 13.92 2.99% -1.39%
13 Weeks 209 14.46 6.8%
-7.09%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall ABR Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. 100
Top Technical ABR Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. 100
Top Fundamental LOPE Grand Canyon Education Inc 55
Top Tech. & Fund. LOPE Grand Canyon Education Inc 55
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. 61
Top Technical DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. 61
Top Fundamental DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. 61
Top Tech. & Fund. DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. 61
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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