Weekly Newsletter 07/20/12
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Friday's downturn caused the NASDAQ Composite to initiate a possible bearish head and shoulders top pattern which will be completed if the index falls through the neckline (red line) at 2875, which also corresponds to the 50 day moving average. The reversal also occured as the index approached its medium term descending trend line (navy line). The day's action also brought a reversal in our trend signal for that index.

NASDAQ Composite

Friday's downturn in the NASDAQ (and other major indexes) coincides with growing fears of a US Recession and rising yields in Spain which again topped 7%.

Despite the loss on Friday, the week's breakouts closed up a healthy 4.3% although the number of breakouts fell below the recent average- quality not quantity! Now the trend is downward, we can expect still fewer breakouts and some shorting opportunities.

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

We are still traveling with only occasional internet access.

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 12822.6 0.36% 4.95% Up
NASDAQ 2925.3 0.58% 12.29% Down
S&P 500 1362.66 0.43% 8.35% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
0.58 %
S&P 500
-2.5 %
NASDAQ Composite
4.97 %
NASDAQ Composite
12.29 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Building Materials Wholesale Building Materials Wholesale Building Materials Wholesale Recreational Vehicles
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Drugs - Generic
+ 44
Drugs - Generic
+ 62
Publishing - Newspapers
+ 172
Dairy Products
+ 193
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 15 13.08 7.8% 4.29%
Last Week 18 12.38 4.58% 0.01%
13 Weeks 225 13.92 7.52%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall TRR TRC Companies, Inc. 105
Top Technical TRR TRC Companies, Inc. 105
Top Fundamental NSM Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Inc 50
Top Tech. & Fund. NSM Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Inc 50
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall CX Cemex SAB de CV (ADR) 94
Top Technical CKEC Carmike Cinemas, Inc. 59
Top Fundamental SSYS Stratasys, Inc. 55
Top Tech. & Fund. SSYS Stratasys, Inc. 55
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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