Weekly Newsletter 08/25/12
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The three major indexes tested new highs on Monday but failed the test which resulted in a heavy distribution day. Our trend indicator of the DJI turned negative while the indicator for the other indexes remains positive. That would likely have changed were it not for Friday's durable goods report which lifted spirits. The upward momentum did not produce an accumulation day, however, possibly because volumes are usually lower on summer Friday's. Although the durable goods headline was bullish, a look behind the numbers produced this warning from Peter Brookvar:

"Bottom line, while volatile transports boosted the top line order number, the core cap ex component is down for the 4th month in the past 5 and likely reflects the reluctance on the part of companies to invest heavily in the current challenging global economic environment where visibility is very limited."

So our economic malaise is likely to continue. What this means for the stock market though is unclear as the Federal Reserve has practically promised more stimulus in September. Expect more sideways movement until that is resolved.

NASDAQ Composite


 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week
 
No new features this week.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

No tip this week.

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 13158 -0.88% 7.7% Down
NASDAQ 3069.79 -0.22% 17.84% Up
S&P 500 1411.13 -0.5% 12.21% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
-0.22 %
NASDAQ Composite
8.19 %
NASDAQ Composite
3.58 %
NASDAQ Composite
17.84 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Aerospace/Defense - Major Diversified Aerospace/Defense - Major Diversified Building Materials Wholesale Building Materials Wholesale
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Hospitals
+ 30
Security Software & Services
+ 62
Home Health Care
+ 122
Dairy Products
+ 175
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 9 14 3.72% 3.60%
Last Week 16 13.92 5.63% 2.21%
13 Weeks 201 14.62 12.67%
6.57%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall SYPR Sypris Solutions, Inc. 110
Top Technical SYPR Sypris Solutions, Inc. 110
Top Fundamental CAP CAI International Inc 49
Top Tech. & Fund. ECHO Echo Global Logistics, Inc. 42
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall ANW Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. 102
Top Technical THLD Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 85
Top Fundamental MOV Movado Group, Inc 56
Top Tech. & Fund. THLD Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 85
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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