Weekly Newsletter 09/22/12
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Last week we anticipated a higher close on Monday and that our trend indicator for the NASADQ would turn positive. In fact, our trend indicator was right and we were wrong to anticipate a change as the NASDAQ, and the other major indexes also, closed down for the week. Our equivolume chart shows that each day's trading produced moderately large intraday spreads but that each day's close was close to unchanged. The markets are searching for direction and it looked as though they might have found it on Friday after "Several Federal Reserve officials made clear this week that Chairman Ben Bernanke commands broad support for the Fed's plan to continue stimulating the economy if hiring doesn't pick up (US News) " , but again the index closed almost unchanged.


Although many commentators are still bullish we recommend caution until our trend indicator changes. Note that there were far viewer breakouts this week and their gains were modest, although positive on average.

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

Last week we announced a 33% reduction in our subscription rates but omitted to publish them in the newsletter, so here they are. The Subscription page is at http://www.breakoutwatch.com/subscription.php?main=true


This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

No tip this week.

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 13579.5 -0.1% 11.15% Up
NASDAQ 3179.96 -0.13% 22.06% Down
S&P 500 1460.15 -0.38% 16.11% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
-0.1 %
Russell 2000
9.37 %
S&P 500
4.51 %
NASDAQ Composite
22.06 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Air Services - Other Air Services - Other Lumber - Wood Production Building Materials Wholesale
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
+ 58
+ 128
+ 172
+ 180
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 26 19.62 2.79% 1.54%
Last Week 52 18.85 5.86% 2.7%
13 Weeks 275 20.85 12.32%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall ENTR Entropic Communications, Inc. 128
Top Technical ENTR Entropic Communications, Inc. 128
Top Fundamental LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. 47
Top Tech. & Fund. TUMI Tumi Holdings Inc 75
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall SKH Skilled Healthcare Group, Inc. 108
Top Technical TPLM Triangle Petroleum Corporation 100
Top Fundamental Z Zillow Inc 60
Top Tech. & Fund. Z Zillow Inc 60
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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