Weekly Newsletter 09/30/12
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ Composite found support at 3100 but our trend signal for the NASDAQ continues to point down. It was joined this week by the S&P 500. I continue to recommend caution until the trend signal reverses. You can see how the trend signal improves your returns when you use our backtest analytical tools. (Evaluate > Analytical Tools).

NASDAQ Composite
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

A subscriber brought to my attention that the Zacks watchlist was not up to date. Investigation showed that changes to the Zack's website had impacted our ability to reliably pickup the stocks ranked No. 1.

That is hopefully fixed now and I've also updated the backtest database to include the corrections. Try running the backtest for various periods and options and and you will see that this once promising strategy has become less reliable since the market recovery. Note that, as mentioned above, the use of the market signals significantly affecte the returns.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

No tip this week.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 13437.1 -1.05% 9.98% Up
NASDAQ 3116.23 -2% 19.62% Down
S&P 500 1440.67 -1.33% 14.56% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
-1.05 %
NASDAQ Composite
5.76 %
S&P 500
2.29 %
NASDAQ Composite
19.62 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Lumber - Wood Production Air Services - Other Lumber - Wood Production Building Materials Wholesale
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Medical Laboratories & Research
+ 54
Silver
+ 133
Silver
+ 192
Silver
+ 187
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 20 19.23 3.13% 1.86%
Last Week 29 19.54 2.73% -0.72%
13 Weeks 275 21.08 11.15%
5.89%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall ANW Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. 109
Top Technical ANW Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. 109
Top Fundamental LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. 44
Top Tech. & Fund. SCSS Select Comfort Corp. 66
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall CAMP CalAmp Corp. 104
Top Technical IMOS ChipMOS Technologies (Bermuda) Ltd 65
Top Fundamental CAMP CalAmp Corp. 104
Top Tech. & Fund. CAMP CalAmp Corp. 104
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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