Weekly Newsletter 10/20/12
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

NASDAQ IntradayLast week we anticipated the NASDAQ would find support at 3000 and that's exactly what happened in intraday trading on Friday.

The index started the week with three accumulation days as traders became more optimistic about earnings season, but confidence was dashed on Thursday with the early release of Google's disappointing numbers. The tech. crash continued as Microsoft, IBM and AMD also disappointed.

The equilibrium chart shows the accumulation days that started the week but note the much heavier volume on Thursday and Friday which indicates stronger downward momentum.

NASDAQ Equivolume

The daily chart reveals that the turnaround also coincided with the index meeting resistance at the 50 dma level. With the 200 dma just a few points below Friday's close,we could see the index test support at that level soon.

NASDAQ Comp

Our NASDAQ trend signal remains down and we continue to recommend caution until it reverses.

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

This feature will return next week.

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 13343.5 0.11% 9.22% Up
NASDAQ 3005.62 -1.26% 15.37% Down
S&P 500 1433.19 0.32% 13.96% Up
Russell 2000 821 -0.25% 10.81% Up
Wilshire 5000
% %
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
S&P 500
0.32 %
S&P 500
5.18 %
S&P 500
3.97 %
NASDAQ Composite
15.37 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Lumber - Wood Production Lumber - Wood Production Air Services - Other Lumber - Wood Production
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Movie Production - Theaters
+ 51
Movie Production - Theaters
+ 63
Silver
+ 162
Publishing - Newspapers
+ 212
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 13 19.38 2.1% -0.56%
Last Week 8 19.54 2.75% -1.09%
13 Weeks 280 20.54 10.63%
3.29%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall OREX Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. 116
Top Technical OREX Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. 116
Top Fundamental LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. 38
Top Tech. & Fund. LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. 38
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall KOG Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp (USA) 80
Top Technical ANV Allied Nevada Gold Corp. 34
Top Fundamental KOG Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp (USA) 80
Top Tech. & Fund. KOG Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp (USA) 80
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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