Weekly Newsletter 11/18/12
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Last week's call that the market's may have found an intermediate bottom proved quickly wrong and the markets fell again this week. Friday did produce an intraday reversal as congressional leaders reported that talk's to avoid the 'fiscal cliff' were encouraging and the major indexes closed with an accumulation day. We're hesitant to make further predictions though as the NASDAQ chart shows that we may be heading for support at the 12 month low of around 2720.

NASDAQ Composite

Our market trend indicators are still indicating the trend is up for the major indexes. The market model has been quite successful over the last five years but it seems to be failing badly during this sharp decline since calling an 'up' trend on November 1. We will be studying the model during the coming week to assess where it has failed and hopefully fine tuning it.

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

This feature will return next week.

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 12588.3 -1.77% 3.03% Up
NASDAQ 2853.13 -1.78% 9.52% Up
S&P 500 1359.88 -1.45% 8.13% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
S&P 500
-1.45 %
S&P 500
-4.11 %
S&P 500
4.99 %
NASDAQ Composite
9.52 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Lumber - Wood Production Lumber - Wood Production Lumber - Wood Production Lumber - Wood Production
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Auto Parts Wholesale
+ 75
Auto Parts Wholesale
+ 78
+ 132
Foreign Money Center Banks
+ 167
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 6 19.62 3.29% 1.41%
Last Week 35 20.31 0.29% -4.7%
13 Weeks 334 20.77 7.01%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall POWR PowerSecure International, Inc. 106
Top Technical POWR PowerSecure International, Inc. 106
Top Fundamental WOR Worthington Industries, Inc. 44
Top Tech. & Fund. CHS Chico's FAS, Inc. 49
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall FBR Fibria Celulose S.A. (ADR) 75
Top Technical TPCG TPC Group Inc 34
Top Fundamental FNGN Financial Engines Inc 35
Top Tech. & Fund. FNGN Financial Engines Inc 35
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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