Weekly Newsletter 04/28/13
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Our trend signals for the NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 turned positive this week. The DJI trend remains negative. This index is less volatile than the others and the trend signals are always slower to reverse. The NASDAQ saw a positive uptick in volume with the level being at or over the 50 day average for the entire week. This is a welcome reversal of the declining volume we have seen since March and indicates that fears of a correction are abating. It also contributed to our model indicating a change in trend as volume action is a component of the model.  A small cloud blocked the sunshine on Friday and raises the slight possibility of a bearish head and shoulders top forming. More likely is that the index will move higher to test resistance at 3307.

NASDAQ Composite

There were twelve breakouts this week with an average gain to their intraday high of 6.58%. This exceptionally high average was generated by two stocks that broke out to make exceptional gains within a single week.

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SCMP) broke out from a cup-with-handle base on Tuesday and closed the week with a gain of 37% after hitting an intraday high 42% above its breakout price.

On Thursday, Pizza Inn, Inc. (PZZI) broke out from a High Tight Flag base and closed Friday 27% above its breakout price.
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

No tip this week. As I was preparing to do an update on what is working now that the market has turned up again I found a bug in the backtest database. I need to spend time fixing that so I have taken the CwH backtest off-line temporarily. I hope to have it back on-line on Tuesday and apologize for any inconvenience.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 14712.5 1.13% 12.27% Down
NASDAQ 3279.26 2.28% 8.6% Up
S&P 500 1582.24 1.74% 10.94% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
2.28 %
Dow Jones
5.88 %
Dow Jones
12.25 %
Dow Jones
12.27 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
REIT - Healthcare Facilities REIT - Healthcare Facilities Cement Cement
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Lumber - Wood Production
+ 39
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers
+ 120
Toy & Hobby Stores
+ 212
Toy & Hobby Stores
+ 216
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 12 11.77 8.61% 6.58%
Last Week 11 12.23 2.5% -1.47%
13 Weeks 194 13.15 8.87%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall UNTD United Online, Inc. 110
Top Technical UNTD United Online, Inc. 110
Top Fundamental CARB Carbonite Inc 59
Top Tech. & Fund. CARB Carbonite Inc 59
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Top Fundamental THRX Theravance Inc 47
Top Tech. & Fund. THRX Theravance Inc 47
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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