Weekly Newsletter 08/31/13
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Our market trend signals for the three major indexes are pointing down. The NASDAQ Composite completed a head and shoulders pattern on 8/15 when it crashed through the neckline (red line on chart) but found support at 3573. I expect the markets will move sideways until the strike against Syria is decided for or against. If there is no strike , markets are likely to move up otherwise down as fears of disruption to oil supplies multiply.

The number of breakouts  fell to just two this week in the face of uncertainty and low volume. This is a good  time to stay on the sidelines until the market direction becomes clearer.

NASDAQ Comp
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week
 No new features this week.
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Last week I hypothesized that opening a position when a stock first reached the Relative Strength rank of 92 may be more profitable than waiting for a breakout with that RS level. Preliminary results show that this is not the case but I am not yet ready to confirm or disprove the hypothesis. Final results should be available next week.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 14810.3 -1.33% 13.02% Down
NASDAQ 3589.87 -1.86% 18.89% Down
S&P 500 1632.97 -1.84% 14.5% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
-1.33 %
NASDAQ Composite
3.88 %
NASDAQ Composite
13.25 %
NASDAQ Composite
18.89 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Toy & Hobby Stores Toy & Hobby Stores Music & Video Stores Toy & Hobby Stores
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Dairy Products
+ 114
Medical Practitioners
+ 111
Medical Practitioners
+ 196
Medical Practitioners
+ 198
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 2 8.23 16.72% -5.43%
Last Week 6 9 9.78% 6.1%
13 Weeks 104 9.15 19.19%
6.57%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall ASTX Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 114
Top Technical ASTX Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 114
Top Fundamental EPL EPL Oil & Gas Inc 49
Top Tech. & Fund. EPL EPL Oil & Gas Inc 49
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall


Top Technical


Top Fundamental


Top Tech. & Fund.


1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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