Weekly Newsletter 02/14/14
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Our market trend signals turned positive again for the three major indexes this week. The NASDAQ Composite set a new 13 year high and is the only index to be positive for the year to date. The previous high was set on January 22, and the index has closed higher on each of the last seven sessions, four of which were accumulation days. Following a new high. and such a succession of gains, it would be normal to see some profit taking now and another short period of consolidation.

NASDAQ Comp

Our table of successful breakouts below list only five but that does not include Squeeze Play breakouts, of which there were thirteen.

B'out Date Symbol Base B'Out Price B'out Day Close B'out Vol % ADV Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
2/13/2014 AHC SQZ 8.46 8.9 202 9.56 13.00% 13.00%
2/10/2014 CGEN SQZ 11.58 12.63 284 11.11 −4.06% 12.09%
2/13/2014 CTRP SQZ 43.02 45.99 363 45.83 6.53% 10.72%
2/13/2014 ARCW SQZ 28.57 29.65 337 28.37 −0.70% 10.22%
2/14/2014 CIEN SQZ 23.39 25 270 25 6.88% 8.08%
2/13/2014 MTDR SQZ 21.23 22.15 189 21.78 2.59% 6.55%
2/13/2014 CRK SQZ 18.9 19.4 181 19.74 4.44% 5.40%
2/12/2014 CRTO SQZ 38.86 38.95 197 39.33 1.21% 4.40%
2/13/2014 ICON SQZ 38.32 39.61 204 39.39 2.79% 3.89%
2/13/2014 CRTO SQZ 38.86 38.95 197 39.33 1.21% 2.93%
2/11/2014 IMOS SQZ 20.08 20.24 151 20.49 2.04% 2.84%
2/10/2014 PRLB SQZ 80.6 81.2 158 78.96 −2.03% 2.80%
2/12/2014 BBW SQZ 9.08 9.15 293 8.77 −3.41% 1.32%
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week. However, a bug with the closing price on the Alert Monitor was corrected.
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Cup-with-Handle + Squeeze Play Combo

You will have noticed that there have been a large number of alerts from the Squeeze Play watchlist over the last week as the NASDAQ has staged a strong recovery. The challenge is to know which of those alerts to act on. The top performer, AHC, in the list of SQZ breakout above, gives a possible answer to that question.

AHC attempted to breakout from a CwH base on 2/12/14 but failed on insufficient volume. However, it was also in a squeeze, so although it dropped off our CwH list for 2/13/14 it was placed on our Squeeze Play list as it was still ascending the right side of a cup. The result was a strong breakout on 2/13/14 this chart shows.

AHC SQZ Breakout


Another example of a Squeeze Play breakout following a CWH breakout is CGEN which broke out on 2/7/14. For 2/10/14 it was no longer of the CwH list but as it was still rising in its cup, it was now on the Squeeze Play watchlist and formed another breakout on that date. While it collapsed the next day, a small one day was possible. The 12% shown in the above table was not possible because the stock opened above the squeeze trigger price.

CGEN

Conclusion

Squeeze Play stocks that were recently in a cup-with-handle may provide a way to anticipate  which Squeeze Play alerts are more actionable than others. This deserves further analysis.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 16154.4 2.28% -2.55% Up
NASDAQ 4244.02 2.86% 1.61% Up
S&P 500 1838.63 2.32% -0.53% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
2.86 %
NASDAQ Composite
6.47 %
NASDAQ Composite
17.8 %
NASDAQ Composite
1.61 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Manufactured Housing Manufactured Housing Drugs Wholesale Toy & Hobby Stores
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
CATV Systems
+ 87
Publishing - Books
+ 143
Aluminum
+ 162
Photographic Equipment & Supplies
+ 182
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 5 8.85 7.93% 5.45%
Last Week 7 9.38 35.27% 23.57%
13 Weeks 110 9.85 21.77%
8.1%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall END Endeavour International Corporation 107
Top Technical END Endeavour International Corporation 107
Top Fundamental CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. 30
Top Tech. & Fund. CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. 30
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall TQNT TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. 84
Top Technical TQNT TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. 84
Top Fundamental TQNT TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. 84
Top Tech. & Fund. TQNT TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. 84
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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