Weekly Newsletter 03/07/14
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ  quickly shrugged off concerns over the situation in the Ukraine and resumed its upward march, as did the other major indexes. The pace is slowing, however, but that was expected as I reported last week. The chart shows that the consolidation I was expecting is beginning and the index will likely move sideways from here.

NASDAQ Comp
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week

The number of breakouts jumped to 39 this week with an average gain overall of 4.4%. Six of them gained over 10% (OSUR, SFUN, QTWW, FENG, TSL and FSS), and three of these were in a squeeze on the day of breakout. I'll discuss SFUN more below.

Breakouts for Week Beginning 2/28/14
B'out
Date
Symbol Base Squeeze B'Out
Price
B'out Day
Close
B'out Vol
% ADV
Last
Close
Current %
off BOP
*Gain at
Intraday High
03/07/14 TAOM SQZ Y 7.10 7.4 228 7.4 4.23% 4.23%
03/07/14 SB SQZ Y 11.24 11.43 204 11.43 1.69% 1.69%
03/07/14 LJPC SQZ Y 8.99 9.76 399 9.76 8.57% 8.57%
03/07/14 SYRG CwH Y 10.77 10.80 1.56 10.8 0.28% 0.28%
03/07/14 RGDO CwH N 7.66 8.18 1.87 8.18 6.79% 6.79%
03/07/14 QTWW CwH Y 9.55 10.25 4.99 10.25 7.33% 7.33%
03/07/14 JASO CwH Y 10.97 11.18 1.99 11.18 1.91% 1.91%
03/07/14 CPE CwH Y 7.30 7.73 2.45 7.73 5.89% 5.89%
03/07/14 ARSD CwH N 12.53 12.56 2.64 12.56 0.24% 0.24%
03/06/14 YGE SQZ Y 6.65 6.78 305 6.76 1.65% 1.95%
03/06/14 TSL SQZ Y 16.40 18.19 319 18.34 11.83% 11.83%
03/06/14 FATE CwH Y 8.98 9.47 1.81 9.09 1.22% 5.46%
03/06/14 BONA CwH N 7.28 7.50 2.46 7.43 2.06% 3.02%
03/06/14 BIDU CwH N 178.92 184.64 2.16 182.04 1.74% 3.2%
03/05/14 FSS SQZ Y 13.24 14.33 239 14.74 11.33% 11.33%
03/05/14 EJ DB N 13.94 14.28 2.03 15.23 9.25% 9.25%
03/05/14 UIHC CwH Y 14.91 15.05 5.32 14.62 -1.95% 3.29%
03/05/14 CKEC CwH N 30.04 31.81 2.16 32.15 7.02% 7.02%
03/04/14 SAAS SQZ Y 9.26 9.94 251 9.63 4.00% 7.34%
03/04/14 QTWW SQZ Y 8.89 9.55 323 10.25 15.30% 15.3%
03/04/14 CPE SQZ Y 7.18 7.3 206 7.73 7.66% 7.66%
03/04/14 WIBC DB Y 10.21 10.42 2.19 10.87 6.46% 6.46%
03/04/14 SFUN DB Y 83.77 83.99 6.23 92.47 10.39% 15.79%
03/04/14 ORBK DB Y 14.26 14.78 1.59 14.19 -0.49% 3.65%
03/04/14 SGYP CwH N 6.37 6.51 1.47 6.09 -4.40% 2.2%
03/04/14 SGY CwH Y 36.92 36.99 1.87 36.49 -1.16% 0.19%
03/04/14 RBCN CwH N 13.38 13.86 1.58 14.34 7.17% 8.3%
03/04/14 OSUR CwH N 7.14 7.39 1.54 8.48 18.77% 18.77%
03/04/14 MOD CwH N 14.91 15.35 2.15 15.47 3.76% 3.76%
03/04/14 KCG CwH Y 12.00 12.24 1.80 12.22 1.83% 2.25%
03/04/14 INVN CwH Y 22.22 22.25 1.58 22.8 2.61% 4.73%
03/04/14 HEI CwH N 62.70 64.52 1.73 63.35 1.04% 2.9%
03/04/14 GWRE CwH Y 53.97 57.38 4.56 54.54 1.06% 6.32%
03/04/14 FENG CwH N 11.68 12.00 2.20 12.8 9.59% 13.61%
03/04/14 FC CwH N 21.40 22.05 2.28 21.56 0.75% 4.21%
03/04/14 DATE CwH Y 8.23 8.44 1.64 8.8 6.93% 6.93%
03/04/14 AXDX CwH Y 15.27 15.38 1.51 15.33 0.39% 1.77%
03/04/14 ACXM CwH Y 37.86 38.90 2.54 38.36 1.32% 2.75%
03/03/14 CIMT SQZ Y 9.81 10.11 158 9.51 -3.06% 8.15%
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

The "Chart Browser", which allows you to quickly step through  the charts on each watchlist, was added to the Squeeze Play list.

I noticed that a bug had crept into the Head and Shoulders Bottom watchlist and that  was no longer being populated. That is now corrected.
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Squeeze Can Work on any Cup Formation

The breakout of SFUN  this week from a Double Bottom base  is another example of the squeeze allowing you to make stronger gains while a stock is still low in its base, and demonstrates that a breakout which also takes the squeeze off can be more profitable. This stock has set a new pivot of 97 and will possibly form a CwH from here.

Although I don't yet have any data to support it, I expect that the head and shoulders bottom pattern when combined with a squeeze will prove very profitable. This is because HSB stocks are even lower in their bases still, and so have more upside potential.

SFUN Squeeze
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 16452.7 0.8% -0.75% Up
NASDAQ 4336.22 0.65% 3.82% Up
S&P 500 1878.04 1% 1.61% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
S&P 500
1 %
NASDAQ Composite
6.74 %
NASDAQ Composite
18.48 %
NASDAQ Composite
3.82 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Medical Practitioners Medical Practitioners Manufactured Housing Publishing - Newspapers
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Synthetics
+ 146
Synthetics
+ 142
Aluminum
+ 188
Aluminum
+ 196
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall NYNY Empire Resorts, Inc. 95
Top Technical NYNY Empire Resorts, Inc. 95
Top Fundamental ADUS Addus HomeCare Corporation 46
Top Tech. & Fund. ADUS Addus HomeCare Corporation 46
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall FATE Fate Therapeutics, Inc. 92
Top Technical UIHC United Insurance Holdings Corp. 69
Top Fundamental UIHC United Insurance Holdings Corp. 69
Top Tech. & Fund. UIHC United Insurance Holdings Corp. 69
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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