Weekly Newsletter 05/02/14
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ Composite remains in a downward trend and is showing a descending triangle pattern. The  trend lines indicate support will be tested at around 4100. A break below that level would signal further weakness.

Our trend indicator for the the DJI and S&P 500 shows an upward trend continues. This divergence among the major indexes suggests continued caution, particularly as the Ukranian situation deteriorates and the possibility of further sanctions continues.

 Weekly Breakout Report  

The number of breakouts rose slightly with the SqueezePlay watchlist again delivering the best returns.

Breakouts for Week Beginning 04/28/14
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
04/30/14 KFRC SQZ Y 21.83 23.12 22.95 5.13 7.65
05/01/14 ANIK SQZ Y 43.14 44.38 45.27 4.94 4.94
04/29/14 SU CwH N 37.55 38.94 39.33 4.74 4.74
05/02/14 PCYG SQZ Y 10.62 11.09 11.09 4.43 4.43
04/29/14 WLK DB N 68.19 70.53 70.86 3.92 4.41
04/30/14 Z CwH Y 104.84 108.70 106.86 1.93 3.68
04/28/14 HOG CwH N 71.87 72.50 72.68 1.13 2.88
04/30/14 CVGI CwH Y 9.44 9.71 9.64 2.12 2.86
05/01/14 AFOP CwH Y 19.62 19.75 20.17 2.80 2.8
05/01/14 HZO CwH N 16.25 16.32 16.66 2.52 2.52
05/02/14 FLT SQZ Y 117.64 120.45 120.45 2.39 2.39
05/01/14 SHPG CwH N 172.33 175.87 174.46 1.24 2.05
04/30/14 NFX CwH N 33.26 33.85 33.73 1.41 1.77
04/29/14 PH CwH N 125.35 125.86 125.08 -0.22 1.22
04/30/14 DHX HSB Y 7.56 7.65 7.29 -3.57 1.19
04/29/14 STM CwH N 9.39 9.45 9.46 0.75 1.06
05/02/14 MXWL CwH N 16.02 16.17 16.17 0.94 0.94
05/01/14 UHAL CwH Y 256.20 258.06 257.36 0.45 0.73
05/02/14 PCRX SQZ Y 72.32 72.84 72.84 0.72 0.72
04/28/14 LSI CwH Y 11.14 11.14 11.14 0.00 0
Weekly Average (20 breakouts) 1.89 2.65
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Volatility Squeeze

I have done more research on the origin of our squeeze indicator and found that the concept has been around for quite a while, although I haven't discovered who actually originated it. The technique is a refinement of what is known as a "Volaitility Squeeze" and is usually associated with a narrowing of the Bollinger Bands and is alternatively called a Bollinger Squeeze.

If you Google Bollinger Band and Keltner Channel you will find quite a few references and even some good videos describing the technique.

As far as I can tell, breakoutwatch is the only site that actually publishes a watchlist of stocks that are in a volatility squeeze and its a service that I plan to expand on. Initially, to get the word out across the web, I've set up a site called volatilitysqueeze.us that explains the volatility squeeze and how to trade it. Please visit the site and "recommend" it.

As you will have seen from our weekly breakout reports, stocks that are in a volatility squeeze do exceptionally well in the first few days after breakout, which is why they are a profitable trade for the swing trader or directional options trader.

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 16512.9 0.93% -0.38% Up
NASDAQ 4123.9 1.19% -1.26% Down
S&P 500 1881.14 0.95% 1.77% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
1.19 %
S&P 500
5.53 %
S&P 500
6.78 %
S&P 500
1.77 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Toy & Hobby Stores Toy & Hobby Stores Medical Practitioners Toy & Hobby Stores
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Textile - Apparel Footwear & Accessories
+ 61
Foreign Utilities
+ 78
+ 188
+ 203
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall MNKD MannKind Corporation 110
Top Technical MNKD MannKind Corporation 110
Top Fundamental TPLM Triangle Petroleum Corporation 76
Top Tech. & Fund. SHLO Shiloh Industries, Inc. 53
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. 75
Top Technical MXWL Maxwell Technologies, Inc. 68
Top Fundamental PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation 25
Top Tech. & Fund. UHAL Amerco 32
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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