Weekly Newsletter 05/16/14
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ Composite was the only index to close higher this week. The gain was marginal, however, and the index remains in a downtrend. As the chart shows, the index is actually in a squeeze with volatility dropping and allowing the Bollinger Band to move within the Keltner Channel. From here, the index could move in either direction. With weakness appearing in the two large cap indexes, the more likely scenario would be a further move down.

NASDAQ Comp
 Weekly Breakout Report  

  The number of breakouts increased this week, with stocks in a squeeze prior to breakout showing the best gains, once again.

Breakouts for Week Beginning 05/12/14
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
05/16/14 PAH SQZ Y 21.11 22.35 22.35 5.87 7.06
05/12/14 IFN SQZ Y 22.82 23.07 24.25 6.27 6.27
05/12/14 MERC CwH Y 9.75 10.28 9.94 1.95 5.44
05/12/14 RRMS DB N 42.54 43.30 44.54 4.70 4.8
05/14/14 SQBG CwH Y 9.00 9.06 9.32 3.56 4.44
05/16/14 CBL HSB Y 18.31 18.89 18.89 3.17 3.6
05/16/14 HDB CwH N 44.94 46.18 46.18 2.76 2.87
05/16/14 IBN CwH Y 49.64 51.01 51.01 2.76 2.8
05/12/14 RMTI SQZ Y 11.55 11.86 9.98 -13.59 2.68
05/12/14 AIQ DB Y 31.09 31.83 29.47 -5.21 2.38
05/12/14 ZLC SQZ Y 21.95 22.31 22.29 1.55 1.64
05/12/14 PGI CwH N 13.00 13.18 13.03 0.23 1.38
05/12/14 STFC SQZ Y 22.31 22.59 21.99 -1.43 1.26
05/12/14 ANN SQZ Y 40.79 41.29 40.09 -1.72 1.23
05/16/14 BCR CwH N 147.53 148.52 148.52 0.67 1.15
05/12/14 ITA CwH N 110.34 111.25 107.73 -2.37 0.82
05/13/14 SPNS SQZ Y 8.12 8.17 7.92 -2.46 0.62
05/12/14 IHI SQZ Y 97.76 98.27 97.29 -0.48 0.52
05/12/14 CMCO SQZ Y 27.45 27.58 26.85 -2.19 0.47
05/12/14 NTI CwH Y 29.11 29.24 27.77 -4.60 0.45
05/12/14 UEIC CwH Y 41.01 41.14 39.82 -2.90 0.32
05/14/14 LEA SQZ Y 85.99 86.09 84.56 -1.66 0.12
05/13/14 AMAP CwH Y 20.90 20.92 20.89 -0.05 0.1
05/12/14 VRTU SQZ Y 36.79 36.9 34.48 -6.28 -4.54
Weekly Average (24 breakouts) -0.48 2
 
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

Following the success of breakouts from a squeeze situation, at least in the first few days after breakout, I've added a new watchlist that I am calling "Squeeze Play Extra". This list is produce by scanning all 6,000+ US stocks that are not already on our watchlists and looking for those that are in a squeeze with positive momentum and positive momentum slope. The list is filtered to include only those stocks that are optionable. There is no minimum price for  inclusion on the list.

This new list is accessed from Mine for Candidates > Long Positions > Squeeze Play Extra
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Introducing Squeeze Play Extra


Our experience with stocks on our watchlists that are in a "volatility squeeze' is that they have the potential to show rapid short term gains as they breakout from the squeeze to the upside. Since the number of chart patterns we look for is limited, the number of stocks that are in a volatility squeeze that we find is also limited. This led me to look for stocks that are in a volatility squeeze that we currently miss.

This new watchlist is comprised of stocks that are in a squeeze but which are not already included on any other watchlist. As with our other watchlists, there is a minimum last close price of $6, minimum 50 day ADV of 30,000 and RS Rank of 80. Also, only optionable stocks are eligible.

Now I have the list, I can begin to work on whether or not the list has value and will be reporting on this in the near future.

Until I have decided if the list has value I will not be issuing alerts.

Let me know your thoughts on this new list on the support forum.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 16491.3 -0.55% -0.52% Up
NASDAQ 4090.59 0.46% -2.06% Down
S&P 500 1877.86 -0.03% 1.6% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
0.46 %
S&P 500
2.13 %
S&P 500
4.43 %
S&P 500
1.6 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Toy & Hobby Stores Toy & Hobby Stores Medical Practitioners Toy & Hobby Stores
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Movie Production - Theaters
+ 54
Foreign Utilities
+ 83
REIT - Healthcare Facilities
+ 185
REIT - Residential
+ 189
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall BDSI BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. 94
Top Technical BDSI BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. 94
Top Fundamental TPLM Triangle Petroleum Corporation 72
Top Tech. & Fund. TPLM Triangle Petroleum Corporation 72
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall SQBG Sequential Brands Group, Inc. 82
Top Technical SQBG Sequential Brands Group, Inc. 82
Top Fundamental BCR C.R. Bard, Inc. 25
Top Tech. & Fund. IBN ICICI Bank Limited 38
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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