Weekly Newsletter 01/23/15
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ broke above the neckline of the bearish head and shoulders top (HST) pattern last Friday which set up another V-bottom recovery when the markets opened on Tuesday. I wrote about the V-bottom and why it occurs here and this was another situation where an intraday reversal caught the shorts unawares and prompted a short covering rally. The HST pattern is normally reliably bearish, as I explained last week, but this time the bears were caught literally with their shorts down.NASDAQ Comp.
The week also brought two accumulation days but our trend indicator has not yet turned bullish  The trend indicator is unfortunately a lagging indicator but I would expect that to change in a day or two if the recovery continues.

accumulation
 Weekly Breakout Report  

The number of breakouts jumped up to 30 this week. Although SqueezePlay breakouts were common (11) with an average gain of 2.5%, they were outnumbered by cup and handle breakouts (16) with an average gain of 2.1%.

Breakouts for Week Beginning 01/19/15
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
01/20/15 OWW CwH N 9.34 9.95 9.97 6.75 6.85
01/22/15 QSII SQZ Y 16.30 17.14 17.24 5.77 5.77
01/23/15 PCRX CwH N 101.92 106.54 106.54 4.53 4.53
01/22/15 MDCA SQZ Y 23.65 24.12 24.68 4.36 4.36
01/22/15 SBAC DB N 113.64 116.47 118.38 4.17 4.17
01/22/15 AAN CwH N 31.10 32.17 32.38 4.12 4.12
01/20/15 PAM SQZ Y 10.20 10.28 10.48 2.75 3.92
01/23/15 HOFT CwH N 17.71 18.33 18.33 3.50 3.5
01/21/15 JAZZ SQZ Y 170.30 174.98 175.56 3.09 3.46
01/21/15 APTS CwH N 9.57 9.66 9.86 3.03 3.03
01/20/15 TEVA DB N 58.26 58.44 59.88 2.78 2.78
01/22/15 CRTO SQZ Y 42.07 43 41.57 -1.19 2.21
01/23/15 ULTA CwH Y 132.43 135.34 135.34 2.20 2.2
01/22/15 BX SQZ Y 35.30 35.71 36.06 2.15 2.15
01/22/15 BV SQZ Y 8.49 8.52 8.67 2.12 2.12
01/22/15 EXL CwH N 14.00 14.27 14.14 1.00 1.93
01/20/15 CACC SQZ Y 139.94 142.26 137.88 -1.47 1.66
01/22/15 MKTX CwH N 73.25 74.44 74.02 1.05 1.62
01/22/15 EBS CwH N 28.48 28.91 28.39 -0.32 1.51
01/21/15 CRUS SQZ Y 24.75 24.85 25.08 1.33 1.45
01/20/15 ATRC CwH N 20.37 20.66 20.22 -0.74 1.42
01/22/15 CSV CwH N 21.53 21.68 21.81 1.30 1.3
01/21/15 PENN CwH N 15.42 15.59 15.32 -0.65 1.1
01/23/15 SCO HTF N 102.03 102.80 102.8 0.75 0.75
01/20/15 PRFT SQZ Y 19.70 19.82 19.2 -2.54 0.61
01/22/15 GFF CwH N 13.71 13.73 13.67 -0.29 0.15
01/22/15 OMAB SQZ Y 37.49 37.53 37.25 -0.64 0.11
01/23/15 SIMO CwH N 26.44 26.46 26.46 0.08 0.08
01/20/15 VOLC CwH N 17.95 17.95 17.96 0.06 0.06
01/22/15 BRP CwH N 24.15 24.16 24.09 -0.25 0.04
Weekly Average (30 breakouts) 1.63 2.3

 
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

ETF Filter on Watchlists


There is now a filter on each watchlist that allows the display of ETFs only. You will see it at the bottom of the filter drop down. The default is 'n' or no. Select 'y' to see ETF's on the list only.

ETF filter

This filter was added following a request from a subscriber. If you would like some feature that is not yet available, please let me know.
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

How Often are ETF's Breakout Candidates?

Now that we have an ETF filter, the question arises as to how often do ETF's breakouts? There were none this week so I investigated further.

On the current set of watchlists there no ETF's listed.

This table show the number of ETF's on the watchlists since January 1, 2014 and the number that broke out:

List Count Breakouts
CWH 461 5
DB 76
HSB 59
HST 13
HTF 3
SQZ 198 3
SQZX 71
SS 31
Total
912
8

The statistics show that successful ETF breakouts are extremely rare.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 17672.6 0.92% -0.84% Down
NASDAQ 4757.88 2.66% 0.46% Down
S&P 500 2051.82 1.6% -0.34% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
2.66 %
NASDAQ Composite
6.11 %
NASDAQ Composite
6.93 %
NASDAQ Composite
0.46 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Toy & Hobby Stores Toy & Hobby Stores Toy & Hobby Stores Drugs Wholesale
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Auto Parts Stores
+ 58
Photographic Equipment & Supplies
+ 91
Semiconductor - Memory Chips
+ 165
Specialty Eateries
+ 170
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall PGNX Progenics Pharmaceuticals Inc. 102
Top Technical PGNX Progenics Pharmaceuticals Inc. 102
Top Fundamental MWIV MWI Veterinary Supply, Inc. 29
Top Tech. & Fund. NOAH Noah Holdings Ltd. 53
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall APTS Preferred Apartment Communities, Inc. 66
Top Technical CSV Carriage Services, Inc. 0
Top Fundamental ULTA Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. 26
Top Tech. & Fund. ULTA Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. 26
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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