Weekly Newsletter 06/05/15
Login   Trial   Guest
You are receiving this email because you are or were a BreakoutWatch.com subscriber, or have subscribed to our weekly newsletter. This newsletter summarizes the breakout events of the week and provides additional guidance that does not fit into our daily format. It is published each weekend.
Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ Composite set a new high on Wednesday but traders were uncertain that the high would hold resulting in a "Doji" candlestick pattern(see chart below). The "Doji" pattern indicates uncertainty about the future direction as the pattern shows an almost equal open and close but with trading above and below during the session. Thursday resolved the uncertainty to the downside as Greece postponed a debt payment to the IMF but a strong jobs report on Friday allowed the index to close for a small 0.2% gain. Overall, the index closed the week for a very small 0.03% loss. While our trend indicators for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 remain positive, the signs of an improving economy are sure to rekindle worries that the Fed will soon begin to raise interest rates with a negative effect on market sentiment.
NASDQ Composite Chart
 Weekly Breakout Report  

Volatility Squeeze breakouts continued to dominate the week's breakouts with 38 out of 68 breakouts and an average gain of 3.8%. AXDX provides an interesting case study and we look at in detail in our Top Tip below.

Breakouts for Week Beginning 06/01/15
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
06/04/15 WBAI* HTF N 22.62 23.00 89 26.06 15.21 15.21
06/04/15 VISN* SQZ Y 15.65 17.75 84 17.38 11.05 13.42
06/04/15 AXDX* SQZ Y 24.37 25.91 87 27.29 11.98 11.98
06/01/15 NWBO* SQZ Y 8.43 8.56 92 9.43 11.86 11.86
06/01/15 UEPS* CwH N 14.84 15.91 82 16.07 8.29 10.51
06/02/15 NDRM CwH N 14.40 15.08 90 15.74 9.31 9.31
06/02/15 IBP SQZ Y 21.32 22.57 92 23.23 8.96 8.96
06/02/15 GWPH SQZ Y 115.76 120.3 96 125.98 8.83 8.83
06/03/15 PGTI CwH N 12.48 13.07 85 13.53 8.41 8.41
06/01/15 TNK CwH N 7.28 7.63 95 7.52 3.30 7.42
06/03/15 GLOB CwH N 26.66 27.82 97 28.31 6.19 6.19
06/01/15 IPXL SQZ Y 47.06 48.9 95 48.59 3.25 6.06
06/03/15 AMWD SQZ Y 53.86 56.07 91 57.11 6.03 6.03
06/02/15 LXFT SQZ Y 53.99 54.47 91 57.06 5.69 5.69
06/03/15 LXFT SQZ Y 54.48 55 93 57.06 4.74 4.74
06/03/15 AAC CwH N 39.98 41.48 91 41.87 4.73 4.73
06/03/15 LAD SQZ Y 108.26 110.27 90 113.17 4.54 4.54
06/02/15 SHOO SQZ Y 38.59 38.6 80 40.29 4.41 4.41
06/03/15 MXL CwH N 10.32 10.76 86 10.7 3.68 4.26
06/01/15 MYRG SQZ Y 29.65 29.65 81 30.48 2.80 4.22
06/05/15 SPCB CwH N 13.28 13.84 92 13.84 4.22 4.22
06/03/15 AFOP CwH N 19.76 20.58 84 20.19 2.18 4.15
06/02/15 WIBC CwH N 11.20 11.25 81 11.66 4.11 4.11
06/01/15 TWOU SQZ Y 27.83 28.23 96 28.97 4.10 4.1
06/04/15 INSY SQZ Y 61.80 63.56 96 64.29 4.03 4.03
06/05/15 REGN CwH N 519.46 539.40 93 539.4 3.84 3.84
06/04/15 LXFT SQZ Y 55.01 55.36 93 57.06 3.73 3.73
06/03/15 XNCR CwH N 18.34 18.96 95 19.01 3.65 3.65
06/03/15 CVGW CwH Y 54.69 56.54 92 55.92 2.25 3.62
06/04/15 LAKE CwH N 11.00 11.37 83 11 0.00 3.36
06/03/15 CALD SQZ Y 14.52 15 82 14.86 2.34 3.31
06/01/15 MIK SQZ Y 27.36 27.52 84 26.98 -1.39 3.25
06/03/15 IBP SQZ Y 22.54 22.74 94 23.23 3.06 3.06
06/04/15 EXPR CwH N 18.10 18.49 89 18.65 3.04 3.04
06/01/15 NSTG CwH N 14.38 14.62 82 14.8 2.92 2.92
06/03/15 SPWH CwH N 10.11 10.15 92 10.4 2.87 2.87
06/05/15 INSM SQZ Y 23.42 24.08 95 24.08 2.82 2.82
06/04/15 AEO SQZ Y 16.48 16.91 86 16.57 0.55 2.61
06/04/15 TXRH SQZ Y 35.67 35.72 81 36.57 2.52 2.52
06/02/15 MMSI SQZ Y 20.77 21 88 20.9 0.63 2.36
06/03/15 VDSI CwH N 27.85 28.46 95 28.5 2.33 2.33
06/01/15 GSIG CwH N 14.96 15.12 83 15.1 0.94 2.27
06/02/15 ANW SQZ Y 14.77 15 88 15.06 1.96 2.1
06/02/15 CORT SQZ Y 6.19 6.28 98 6.32 2.10 2.1
06/03/15 HVB SQZ Y 26.02 26.36 83 26.56 2.08 2.08
06/02/15 OPY CwH N 26.24 26.50 85 26.76 1.98 1.98
06/04/15 CIEN CwH N 24.55 24.64 89 25 1.83 1.83
06/03/15 CUDA SQZ Y 40.11 40.77 88 40.82 1.77 1.77
06/01/15 DOOR SQZ Y 68.10 69.3 84 68.8 1.03 1.76
06/03/15 DLTR SQZ Y 77.72 79.08 83 77.64 -0.10 1.75
06/01/15 COO SQZ Y 181.72 182.97 83 175.37 -3.49 1.72
06/04/15 CAVM CwH N 72.65 73.42 85 73.88 1.69 1.69
06/01/15 PFSI CwH Y 18.99 19.00 80 19.3 1.63 1.63
06/02/15 ULTA SQZ Y 153.83 154.35 91 156.28 1.59 1.59
06/02/15 PFSI SQZ Y 19.02 19.15 80 19.3 1.47 1.47
06/03/15 ULTA SQZ Y 154.26 156.26 93 156.28 1.31 1.31
06/02/15 BSET SQZ Y 28.99 29.35 95 27.44 -5.35 1.24
06/05/15 JKS CwH Y 30.38 30.72 85 30.72 1.12 1.12
06/01/15 ATRC SQZ Y 23.00 23.24 93 22.51 -2.13 1.04
06/05/15 CORI HTF N 14.36 14.50 98 14.5 0.97 0.97
06/01/15 FICO SQZ Y 87.95 88.17 90 87.75 -0.23 0.9
06/04/15 RDI SQZ Y 13.94 14.06 91 13.99 0.36 0.86
06/02/15 ORLY SQZ Y 222.38 222.9 87 222.09 -0.13 0.83
06/05/15 BANC HTF N 13.60 13.71 86 13.71 0.81 0.81
06/03/15 SUSQ CwH N 14.00 14.02 83 14.09 0.64 0.64
06/02/15 COR SQZ Y 47.42 47.52 85 46.54 -1.86 0.21
06/03/15 GOGO CwH N 22.50 22.50 86 22.22 -1.24 0
06/04/15 TEO HSB N 20.38 20.38 27 19.93 -2.21 -0
Weekly Average (68 breakouts) 3.02 3.86
*RS Rank on day before breakout.

  * Volume on watchlist date >= 50 day average volume and gain >= 10%.
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week
New Volume Filter on Long Watchlists.

We have commented before (most recently 5/815) that a surge in volume accompanied by improving price before breakout can indicate a strong breakout to come). AXDX (see below) provides another example of this. To permit the easy recognition of above average volume, I've modified our watchlist filters to allow the selection of stocks with an above average volume on the date of  their listing on the watchlist. Simply set the new filter to 'yes' and the watchlist (and alerts if you so specify) will be limited to those that have an equal or above average volume and improving price on the date the watchlist is published.

new volume filter
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site
At Least Average Volume on Watchlist Date Forecasts Strong Breakout

AXDX was list on our cup and handle pattern watchlist on 06/02/03 with a volume 1.6 times the 50 day average. The stock was also marked as being in a volatility squeeze. We issued an alert the next day, 06/03/15 at 10:27 and a price of 24.08. Although  the stock closed above its pivot price we did not recognize it as a successful breakout because the volume failed to meet  the 1.5 times ADV requirement.

cup and handle pattern chart for AXDX

However, the stock  did not rise to the point where the volatility squeeze came off, and so it remained on our Volatility Squeeze (SQZ) watchlist on 06/03/15 for trading the next day.. We issued a SQZ alert on 06/04/15 at 09:53 and a price of 24.40.This time the volume rose to almost 3 times ADV  and the breakout was confirmed.

Volatility Squeeze Pattern Chart for AXDX

If our new volume filter had been available for these dates, then AXDX would have been selected.

All of the stocks that gained at least 10% this week had a volume on the day before breakout at least equal  to their average volume.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 17849.5 -0.9% 0.15% Down
NASDAQ 5068.46 -0.03% 7.02% Up
S&P 500 2092.83 -0.69% 1.65% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
-0.03 %
NASDAQ Composite
2.86 %
NASDAQ Composite
6.02 %
NASDAQ Composite
7.02 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Drug Stores Drug Stores Drugs Wholesale Toy & Hobby Stores
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 102
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 119
Gaming Activities
+ 174
Office Supplies
+ 167
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall PMFG PMFG, Inc. 111
Top Technical PMFG PMFG, Inc. 111
Top Fundamental MDXG MiMedx Group, Inc 84
Top Tech. & Fund. HQY HealthEquity, Inc. 62
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall SPCB SuperCom, Ltd. 78
Top Technical AAC AAC Holdings, Inc. 59
Top Fundamental AAC AAC Holdings, Inc. 59
Top Tech. & Fund. AAC AAC Holdings, Inc. 59
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

If you received this newsletter from a friend and you would like to receive it regularly please go to the BreakoutWatch.com site and enter as a Guest. You will then be able to register to receive the newsletter.

Copyright 2015 NBIcharts, LLC dba BreakoutWatch.com. All rights reserved.
" BreakoutWatch," the BreakoutWatch.com "eye" logo, and the slogan "tomorrow's breakouts today" are service marks of NBIcharts LLC. All other marks are the property of their respective owners, and are used for descriptive purposes only.

BreakoutWatch is not affiliated with Investor's Business Daily or with Mr. William O'Neil. Our site, research and analysis is supported entirely by subscription and is free from advertising.



To unsubscribe from further breakoutwatch.com newsletters, please click here.