Weekly Newsletter 06/12/15
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Three "Doji" patterns this week, on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, indicated the uncertainty generated by the unresolved Greek Debt crisis. Of the three major indexes, the NASDAQ was the only one to close with a small loss for the week but the index is also the only one to close above its 50 day average and the only one for which our trend indicator remains positive. The NASDAQ also remains the clear winner on a year-to-date basis.

A consequence of the index trading within a relatively narrow range is that the Bollinger Band has contracted to within the Keltner Channel, as the chart shows, indicating that a volatility squeeze is in progress. A volatility squeeze is resolved when normal volatility returns which will be when either a strong up or down trend returns.

It is also worth noting that daily volume fell well below the 50 day average on Thursday and even more so on Friday as traders headed off for the weekend. This pattern will likely continue throughout the summer making trading on Friday and Monday somewhat uncertain due to contracting volume.
NASDAQ Composite Chart

 Weekly Breakout Report  

The volatility squeeze in the NASDAQ as a whole is reflected in the large number of stocks appearing on our volatility squeeze watchlist (SQZ) and the number of breakouts, 46,  that come from that list. However, the average gain at weeks end for SQZ breakouts was 1.3% compared to 2.8% for cup and handle breakouts (CwH).
 
Breakouts for Week Beginning 06/08/15
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
06/10/15 RCPT SQZ Y 160.47 180.52 98 178.31 11.12 17.54
06/08/15 MXL CwH N 10.76 10.89 89 12.38 15.06 15.06
06/11/15 HTHT CwH N 27.30 29.02 84 30.89 13.15 13.15
06/12/15 XNET CwH N 12.14 13.70 96 13.7 12.85 12.85
06/09/15 CCRN SQZ Y 10.89 11.27 82 11.88 9.09 9.09
06/09/15 LLY CwH N 79.85 82.77 84 84.21 5.46 8.44
06/10/15 LAYN SQZ Y 8.98 9.66 89 9.72 8.24 8.24
06/09/15 CMN CwH Y 48.54 52.00 85 51.93 6.98 7.13
06/09/15 HELE SQZ Y 89.82 90.9 94 94.79 5.53 5.53
06/10/15 CCRN SQZ Y 11.29 11.73 89 11.88 5.23 5.23
06/08/15 PTLA CwH N 42.72 42.84 94 44.32 3.75 5.2
06/08/15 XON SQZ Y 45.47 47.65 96 44.75 -1.58 4.79
06/11/15 HTBX SQZ Y 6.91 7.24 89 7.23 4.63 4.78
06/11/15 RCPT SQZ Y 180.27 188.62 98 178.31 -1.09 4.63
06/09/15 FLXN SQZ Y 22.05 22.32 82 22.06 0.05 4.35
06/10/15 HELE SQZ Y 90.85 92.92 94 94.79 4.34 4.34
06/10/15 WETF CwH N 21.93 22.88 95 22.4 2.14 4.33
06/10/15 OXM SQZ Y 81.05 84.55 93 83.95 3.58 4.32
06/09/15 LXRX HTF Y 8.01 8.29 99 8 -0.12 4.12
06/09/15 VDSI CwH N 29.60 30.76 96 30.21 2.06 3.92
06/10/15 FRED CwH N 18.83 19.07 84 19.49 3.51 3.51
06/12/15 LOGM SQZ Y 64.26 66.49 92 66.49 3.47 3.47
06/09/15 XNCR CwH N 19.36 20.00 96 19.38 0.10 3.31
06/09/15 HTLF SQZ Y 35.34 35.85 91 36.41 3.03 3.25
06/10/15 MSTR SQZ Y 176.53 181.76 80 178.75 1.26 2.96
06/09/15 ILMN CwH N 211.54 215.59 81 215.27 1.76 2.96
06/10/15 CORT CwH N 6.55 6.73 98 6.66 1.68 2.75
06/10/15 CME SQZ Y 96.38 98.58 82 96.93 0.57 2.58
06/11/15 EDU SQZ Y 25.38 26.02 80 25.52 0.55 2.52
06/10/15 RUTH SQZ Y 15.30 15.46 83 15.68 2.48 2.48
06/08/15 BOFI SQZ Y 97.98 98.49 84 99.52 1.57 2.46
06/11/15 HELE SQZ Y 92.73 94.09 94 94.79 2.22 2.22
06/10/15 NWL SQZ Y 40.38 41.01 81 41.11 1.81 2.18
06/11/15 COT CwH Y 9.87 9.96 88 10.08 2.13 2.13
06/09/15 IRS SQZ Y 18.62 18.99 80 18.48 -0.75 1.99
06/08/15 LOCK SQZ Y 16.49 16.51 83 16.53 0.24 1.94
06/09/15 NVIV CwH N 14.99 15.19 99 15.25 1.73 1.93
06/08/15 NBIX CwH Y 44.49 45.28 98 42.93 -3.51 1.78
06/10/15 CFI SQZ Y 27.45 27.78 92 27.93 1.75 1.75
06/08/15 WUBA SQZ Y 80.43 81.8 97 77.42 -3.74 1.7
06/10/15 HTLF SQZ Y 35.89 36.41 92 36.41 1.45 1.67
06/09/15 CFP CwH N 16.95 16.99 96 17.02 0.41 1.65
06/10/15 GEVA HTF N 219.30 222.19 99 222.79 1.59 1.59
06/11/15 AEO SQZ Y 16.90 17.07 85 17.15 1.48 1.48
06/12/15 CALD SQZ Y 15.10 15.31 85 15.31 1.39 1.39
06/08/15 CENTA SQZ Y 10.32 10.46 81 10.22 -0.97 1.36
06/11/15 SQBK SQZ Y 27.41 27.65 87 27.77 1.31 1.31
06/11/15 NUAN CwH N 17.95 18.18 84 17.91 -0.22 1.28
06/11/15 CCRN SQZ Y 11.73 11.81 89 11.88 1.28 1.28
06/11/15 XRS SQZ Y 37.66 38 88 38.11 1.19 1.19
06/08/15 GSIG CwH Y 15.30 15.40 84 15.36 0.39 1.18
06/10/15 TREC CwH N 14.35 14.38 80 14.51 1.11 1.11
06/11/15 JMBA SQZ Y 15.33 15.45 80 15.5 1.11 1.11
06/12/15 COT SQZ Y 9.97 10.08 89 10.08 1.10 1.1
06/12/15 SONC SQZ Y 31.20 31.53 84 31.53 1.06 1.06
06/12/15 WX SQZ Y 43.56 44 88 44 1.01 1.01
06/12/15 MGNX SQZ Y 33.64 33.97 86 33.97 0.98 0.98
06/09/15 KMG SQZ Y 31.24 31.52 97 29.36 -6.02 0.9
06/10/15 KYTH CwH N 55.94 56.43 91 54.66 -2.29 0.88
06/08/15 RUBI SQZ Y 18.38 18.54 91 16.78 -8.71 0.87
06/11/15 PENN SQZ Y 17.60 17.73 91 17.54 -0.34 0.74
06/08/15 DENN SQZ Y 11.32 11.35 90 11.34 0.18 0.62
06/11/15 FCN SQZ Y 41.16 41.38 80 41 -0.39 0.53
06/11/15 CFI SQZ Y 27.82 27.88 92 27.93 0.40 0.4
06/10/15 NVO CwH N 57.90 58.02 87 57.43 -0.81 0.21
06/10/15 CCIH CwH N 15.50 15.53 84 15.1 -2.58 0.19
06/12/15 TSCO SQZ Y 90.09 90.19 87 90.19 0.11 0.11
06/11/15 HVB SQZ Y 26.90 26.93 86 26.92 0.07 0.11
06/10/15 ELLI SQZ Y 65.29 65.32 97 64.91 -0.58 0.05
06/08/15 MSFG SQZ Y 0.00 20.67 80 20.96 0.00 0
06/12/15 CFI SQZ Y 27.93 27.93 92 27.93 0.00 0
Weekly Average (71 breakouts) 1.79 3.16
*RS Rank on day before breakout.

 
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week
Announcing the Breakoutwatch Blog

I've  instituted a blog this week which is drawn from the weekly top  tip articles in the newsletter going back to January 2014.

It's accessed from the home page or the sidebar if you are logged in.
 
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

After implementing the  blog, there is no time for a top tip this week.

This feature will return next week.
 
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 17898.8 0.28% 0.42% Down
NASDAQ 5051.1 -0.34% 6.65% Up
S&P 500 2094.11 0.06% 1.71% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
0.28 %
NASDAQ Composite
3.68 %
NASDAQ Composite
8.54 %
NASDAQ Composite
6.65 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Drug Stores Drug Stores Drugs Wholesale Drugs Wholesale
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 60
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 173
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 205
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 202
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall PMFG PMFG, Inc. 108
Top Technical PMFG PMFG, Inc. 108
Top Fundamental ATHM Autohome Inc. 47
Top Tech. & Fund. VDSI VASCO Data Security International, Inc. 57
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall CORT Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated 102
Top Technical CFP Cornerstone Progressive Return Fund 54
Top Fundamental ILMN Illumina, Inc. 28
Top Tech. & Fund. VDSI VASCO Data Security International, Inc. 61
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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