Weekly Newsletter 07/10/15
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

There was no newsletter last week due to the July 4 holiday. Since our last report the NASDAQ composite has fallen below its 50 day average and our trend indicators are now negative for all three major indexes. However, the NASDAQ has risen in the last three days and the 50 day average now forms a resistance level. Whether or not that level gets tested depends in part on the German response to  the latest reform proposals  from Greece. At the time of writing, it appears that the Germans are holding out for even more austerity which will only result in a further fall in Greece's GDP and reduce further their ability to repay their debt.NASDAQ Comp. Chart
 Weekly Breakout Report  

Although market conditions were not ideal, there were still a healthy number of breakouts this week, only 4 of which had lost value at Friday's close.

Breakouts for Week Beginning 07/06/15
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
07/10/15 CHRS SQZ Y 29.88 33.06 86 33.06 10.64 10.64
07/09/15 DVAX CwH N 25.51 26.44 99 28.11 10.19 10.19
07/06/15 FPRX SQZ Y 23.80 24.92 93 26.01 9.29 9.29
07/10/15 ZGNX HTF N 13.96 15.17 99 15.17 8.67 8.67
07/06/15 CNTY SQZ Y 6.49 7.03 88 6.5 0.15 8.32
07/10/15 ERI SQZ Y 8.32 8.95 97 8.95 7.57 7.57
07/07/15 FLXN SQZ Y 22.36 23.29 87 23.74 6.17 6.17
07/06/15 UVE SQZ Y 25.23 25.88 95 26.73 5.95 5.95
07/07/15 TYL CwH N 131.14 133.48 88 138.42 5.55 5.55
07/09/15 NGHC CwH N 21.36 21.42 83 22.27 4.26 4.26
07/07/15 FPRX SQZ Y 24.95 25.89 95 26.01 4.25 4.25
07/07/15 ULTA SQZ Y 157.23 159.42 90 163.11 3.74 3.74
07/10/15 TREC CwH N 15.48 16.05 91 16.05 3.68 3.68
07/10/15 CARA CwH N 12.82 13.28 89 13.28 3.59 3.59
07/07/15 INN SQZ Y 13.73 13.99 82 14.19 3.35 3.35
07/09/15 GWRE CwH N 54.64 56.29 84 56.24 2.93 3.02
07/06/15 FNF SQZ Y 37.65 38.14 83 38.76 2.95 2.95
07/07/15 BR SQZ Y 52.07 52.43 80 53.57 2.88 2.88
07/09/15 ULTA SQZ Y 158.57 159.91 92 163.11 2.86 2.86
07/10/15 FAF CwH N 38.47 39.53 89 39.53 2.76 2.76
07/07/15 MBLY CwH N 55.84 55.91 91 57.35 2.70 2.7
07/07/15 DPS DB Y 75.36 77.34 74 77.18 2.42 2.63
07/10/15 SABR SQZ Y 25.04 25.65 87 25.65 2.44 2.44
07/07/15 MNK SQZ Y 119.60 121.2 86 122.44 2.37 2.37
07/07/15 WST CwH N 59.46 60.65 84 59.92 0.77 2
07/07/15 SUI SQZ Y 64.85 65.66 80 66.1 1.93 1.93
07/06/15 NSP SQZ Y 51.51 52.2 94 52.47 1.86 1.86
07/06/15 QNST CwH N 6.66 6.78 84 6.56 -1.50 1.8
07/09/15 GNCMA CwH N 17.53 17.61 91 17.83 1.71 1.71
07/06/15 INAP SQZ Y 9.34 9.46 81 9.5 1.71 1.71
07/07/15 LEN CwH N 52.50 52.77 82 53.3 1.52 1.52
07/07/15 MDCO SQZ Y 32.82 33.3 90 32.73 -0.27 1.46
07/10/15 ABCO SQZ Y 57.21 57.96 82 57.96 1.31 1.31
07/10/15 BR SQZ Y 52.93 53.57 83 53.57 1.21 1.21
07/10/15 BSAC HSB N 20.24 20.48 30 20.48 1.19 1.19
07/07/15 WNR SQZ Y 46.01 46.29 82 46.54 1.15 1.15
07/09/15 IMKTA SQZ Y 50.46 50.95 95 50.78 0.63 0.97
07/07/15 MD CwH N 75.63 76.29 86 76.01 0.50 0.87
07/09/15 PZN CwH N 11.25 11.34 87 11.33 0.71 0.8
07/07/15 PLCE SQZ Y 65.86 66.3 86 64.61 -1.90 0.67
07/10/15 HAWK CwH N 42.39 42.61 90 42.61 0.52 0.52
07/07/15 INAP SQZ Y 9.46 9.48 82 9.5 0.42 0.42
07/06/15 ENH CwH N 66.93 67.01 83 67.07 0.21 0.31
07/06/15 ADVS CwH N 44.24 44.25 90 67.07 N/A 0.02
07/06/15 CYTK SQZ Y 6.35 6.35 83 6.1 -3.94 -0
Weekly Average (45 breakouts) 2.69 3.18
*RS Rank on day before breakout.

 
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

A download tab was added to each watchlist at a user's request. Clicking this tab will download the watchlists in .csv format suitable for import into any spreadsheet package such as Excel.

Download Tab
 
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Two Potential Breakouts for this Week

I am not recommending you buy these stocks but they may be worth watching.

Our volatility squeeze watchlist looks for stocks that have fallen but are now ascending the right side of a cup and may have stalled in their ascent creating a volatility squeeze. We recognize a volatility squeeze when the Bollinger Bands lie within the Keltner Channel. These situations present a buying opportunity when their upward movement resumes.

Investment Technology Group, Inc. (ITG) is an independent execution and research broker that partners with global portfolio managers and traders.
ITG is starting to ascend the right side of a cup and in the process has formed a volatility squeeze situation. Heavy buying on Monday was resumed in the last two days with positive price movement and volume that was well above average. This indicates that ITG may move higher next week, overall market conditions permitting. We attribute a relative strength rank of 90 to ITG placing its 12 month price performance in the top 90% of the 6000+ stocks we follow.
Volatility Squeeze Chart for ITG

Our Cup and Handle Watchlist finds stocks that are in a cup and handle chart pattern.

Vascular Solutions, Inc. (VASC) is a medical device company which creates minimally invasive medical devices. Since setting a pivot price of 35.98 on 6/22/15 the handle has shown an upward trend despite generally unfavorable market conditions. On Friday the stock closed higher on above average volume. Although a breakout may be a few days away, it is worth following in the short term. We attribute a relative strength rank of 91 to VASC placing its 12 month price performance in the top 91% of the 6000+ stocks we follow.

Cup and Handle Chart Pattern for VASC
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 17760.4 -0.35% -0.17% Down
NASDAQ 4997.7 -0.23% 5.52%
Down
S&P 500 2076.62 -0.01% 0.86% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
0.43 %
NASDAQ Composite
0.03 %
NASDAQ Composite
6.24 %
NASDAQ Composite
5.52 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Tobacco Products - Other Tobacco Products - Other Drugs Wholesale Drugs Wholesale
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Publishing - Periodicals
+ 127
Internet Service Providers
+ 104
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 196
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 209
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall GLUU Glu Mobile Inc. 105
Top Technical GLUU Glu Mobile Inc. 105
Top Fundamental MDXG MiMedx Group, Inc 69
Top Tech. & Fund. MDXG MiMedx Group, Inc 69
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall QNST QuinStreet, Inc. 101
Top Technical TREC Trecora Resources 57
Top Fundamental NGHC National General Holdings Corp 44
Top Tech. & Fund. NGHC National General Holdings Corp 44
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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