Weekly Newsletter 08/07/15
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Since making its most recent high on July 20, the NASDAQ has fallen below its 50 day moving level twice. Should it rally above that level but fail to reach Thursday's high of 5175, then it will qualify as being a short sale possibility.

Although earnings reports have been mixed, the economic news is generally positive and Friday's jobs report was in-line with  expectations. Analysts believe this increases the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates at their September meeting so we are likely seeing stock prices adjust lower in anticipation of tightening of liquidity.

Unsurprisingly, our market trend signal for the DJI remains negative after 7 successive losing days, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite trends remain positive, although as noted  above, this may change soon enough and so caution is advised.

NASDAQ Composite Chart
 Weekly Breakout Report  

The number of weekly breakouts fell to 25 and as can  be seen,  only 2 had gains in double figures by week's close. While profitable breakouts can still occur as the market consolidates, opportunities will carry greater risk.

Breakouts for Week Beginning 08/03/15
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
08/04/15 AMSG SQZ Y 71.68 73.27 92 82.44 15.01 17.93
08/05/15 TSE DB N 26.60 27.18 95 29.49 10.86 12.18
08/03/15 MRNS HTF N 17.38 17.41 98 17.84 2.65 11.51
08/04/15 MRNS HTF N 17.48 19.38 98 17.84 2.06 10.87
08/05/15 RGR CwH Y 60.86 62.75 90 63.14 3.75 8.53
08/06/15 HLF CwH N 55.86 57.56 88 59.68 6.84 6.84
08/07/15 CCRN CwH N 13.19 13.98 94 13.98 5.99 5.99
08/03/15 DENN CwH N 12.09 12.60 91 12.42 2.73 5.05
08/04/15 EXEL HTF N 6.31 6.62 99 5.9 -6.50 4.91
08/05/15 JCOM CwH N 71.06 74.28 86 74.11 4.29 4.53
08/04/15 AET SQZ Y 113.60 115.19 89 116.39 2.46 3.93
08/03/15 NICE SQZ Y 64.54 65.4 94 66.53 3.08 3.56
08/05/15 BSFT SQZ Y 35.35 36.32 90 34.23 -3.17 2.74
08/07/15 BR CwH N 54.67 56.05 82 56.05 2.52 2.52
08/05/15 AET SQZ Y 115.19 118.07 89 116.39 1.04 2.5
08/04/15 VMC CwH N 95.23 96.05 89 94.51 -0.76 2.31
08/03/15 PRE CwH N 136.10 139.20 84 137.8 1.25 2.28
08/05/15 CALM SQZ Y 55.70 56.89 95 54.54 -2.08 2.14
08/03/15 TDS DB N 29.48 30.05 81 29.3 -0.61 1.93
08/03/15 LABL SQZ Y 63.76 63.8 86 64.65 1.40 1.85
08/05/15 CSOD CwH N 37.54 38.03 84 36.39 -3.06 1.31
08/06/15 HR HSB N 24.14 24.25 35 24.38 0.99 0.99
08/03/15 INGN SQZ Y 44.47 44.83 97 43.39 -2.43 0.81
08/05/15 SKYW CwH N 17.12 17.24 93 17.09 -0.18 0.7
08/06/15 LABL SQZ Y 64.82 64.94 88 64.65 -0.26 0.19
Weekly Average (25 breakouts) 1.84 0.7
*RS Rank on day before breakout.

 
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week.
 
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Use Above Average Volume Filter to Identify Possible Strong Breakouts


Our top performing breakout this week came from our Volatility Squeeze watchlist. The breakout came on Wednesday as the stock gapped up. The gap up of 10% put it well outside our recommended 5% limit so there was little opportunity to capture the 17% gain on breakout day, but an astute reading of the chart would have allowed an entry on Monday. The chart below shows that on Friday, July 31, the stock qualified for our Volatility Squeeze watchlist and the stock was setting up for a possible breakout to come.

Use of our Above Average Volume filter (described here) on the watchlist on July 31 would have selected AMSG and the  trade could have been entered at Monday's  open.
Volatility Squeeze chart for AMSG
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 17373.4 -1.79% -2.52% Down
NASDAQ 5043.54 -1.65% 6.49% Up
S&P 500 2077.57 -1.25% 0.91% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
S&P 500
-1.25 %
NASDAQ Composite
0.8 %
NASDAQ Composite
6.31 %
NASDAQ Composite
6.49 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Tobacco Products - Other Tobacco Products - Other Textile Industrial Drugs Wholesale
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Publishing - Periodicals
+ 70
Drug Related Products
+ 158
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 193
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 210
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall TNK Teekay Tankers Ltd. 98
Top Technical TNK Teekay Tankers Ltd. 98
Top Fundamental MOH Molina Healthcare Inc 31
Top Tech. & Fund. MOH Molina Healthcare Inc 31
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall DENN Denny's Corporation 68
Top Technical DENN Denny's Corporation 68
Top Fundamental DENN Denny's Corporation 68
Top Tech. & Fund. DENN Denny's Corporation 68
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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