Weekly Newsletter 08/14/15
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ Composite was practically unchanged for the week as compared to  last Friday's close. Monday and Tuesday were dominated by reaction to China's devaluation of the Yuan. Although Wednesday continued the negative sentiment in  early trading, the index recovered to close higher.

The chart shows that the index completed a bearish head and shoulders top pattern on August 6 although there are signs that Wednesday's higher close may have signaled a recovery. However, for  the present, our market trend indicators remain down for the three major indexes.
NASDAQ Composite Chart 8/14/15
 Weekly Breakout Report  

The number of breakouts for the week remained steady at 25 while the average gain moved up due to the strong performance of  MRVC, LPCN and SHEN. There were equal numbers of volatility squeeze (SQZ) and cup and handle (CwH)  breakouts with SQZ breakouts easily outperforming the CwH. Note that historically, CwH breakouts are usually the strongest  overall.
 
Breakouts for Week Beginning 08/10/15
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
08/12/15 MRVC SQZ Y 12.79 13.45 89 16.82 31.51 31.51
08/11/15 LPCN HTF N 14.48 17.37 99 16.51 14.02 19.96
08/11/15 SHEN CwH N 36.22 42.78 89 41.79 15.38 18.11
08/11/15 CONE SQZ Y 31.86 32.42 83 34.61 8.63 8.63
08/12/15 AGX SQZ Y 38.42 38.86 85 40.52 5.47 7.78
08/13/15 AGX SQZ Y 38.96 41.41 87 40.52 4.00 6.29
08/12/15 SRPT SQZ Y 33.54 34.69 99 35.33 5.34 5.34
08/13/15 NILE CwH N 33.60 34.20 82 34.68 3.21 3.21
08/14/15 SSNI CwH N 13.81 14.25 95 14.25 3.19 3.19
08/12/15 DHI CwH N 29.74 29.96 90 30.64 3.03 3.16
08/13/15 TTEC CwH N 28.27 28.38 83 28.81 1.91 1.91
08/14/15 PRGO SQZ Y 192.51 196 87 196 1.81 1.81
08/13/15 SRPT SQZ Y 34.74 35.17 99 35.33 1.70 1.7
08/10/15 COMM SQZ Y 31.25 31.59 85 31.6 1.12 1.63
08/12/15 XHB SQZ Y 37.54 37.55 81 38.14 1.60 1.6
08/10/15 TISI CwH N 45.78 46.49 82 45.8 0.04 1.55
08/11/15 SKYW CwH N 17.50 17.74 94 17.45 -0.29 1.37
08/11/15 ATEN CwH N 7.11 7.17 92 7.17 0.84 1.27
08/10/15 JCOM CwH N 74.28 75.13 92 73.25 -1.39 1.14
08/12/15 CRL SQZ Y 75.45 76.12 83 75.28 -0.23 0.89
08/14/15 DW SQZ Y 58.52 59.01 87 59.01 0.84 0.84
08/11/15 KIRK SQZ Y 27.18 27.37 93 26.64 -1.99 0.7
08/12/15 NXTM CwH N 18.27 18.35 80 18.27 0.00 0.44
08/13/15 ITB CwH N 28.60 28.66 81 28.71 0.38 0.38
08/12/15 XRAY CwH N 57.14 57.29 81 56.79 -0.61 0.26
Weekly Average (25 breakouts) 3.98 4.99
*RS Rank on day before breakout.

 
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week.
 
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Above Average Volume Again Proves Value in Identifying Strong Breakouts


MRVC's daily volume suddenly jumped on 8/11/15 from a previous average of less than 8,000 shares to 48,000, a 6 fold increase. The stock had been in a volatility squeeze pattern for several days, but the massive increase in volume was an almost certain sign that that was about to end. It did so the next day with a 5% gain over our estimated breakout price on similarly high volume. (The breakout price is our estimate of the close necessary for  the squeeze to come  off). The stock closed the week with a 31% gain.

Volatility Squeeze Chart for MRVC
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 17477.4 0.6% -1.94% Down
NASDAQ 5048.23 0.09% 6.59% Down
S&P 500 2091.54 0.67% 1.59% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
S&P 500
0.67 %
NASDAQ Composite
-0 %
NASDAQ Composite
3.15 %
NASDAQ Composite
6.59 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Cigarettes Tobacco Products - Other Textile Industrial Drugs Wholesale
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Photographic Equipment & Supplies
+ 50
Auto Parts Wholesale
+ 87
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 182
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 209
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall GSL Global Ship Lease, Inc. 110
Top Technical GSL Global Ship Lease, Inc. 110
Top Fundamental PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. 49
Top Tech. & Fund. PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. 49
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall ATEN A10 Networks, Inc. 101
Top Technical DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. 0
Top Fundamental TISI Team, Inc. 0
Top Tech. & Fund. TISI Team, Inc. 0
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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