Weekly Newsletter 09/25/15
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ Composite fell 3% this week, mostly due to weakness in biotechnology following Hillary Clinton's threat to take on price-gouging following the outrageous 4,000% price increase in 62-year old drug Daraprim. The NASDAQ's Biotechnology Index fell about 14% this week.

The 50 day moving average is now on track to fall below the 200 dma in the next day or so. This is a bearish sign that we haven't seen since mid-2011. The index is now officially in a correction, having fallen 10.7% from its July 20 high.
NASDAQ Composite Chart
 Weekly Breakout Report  

Breakouts from our Volatility Squeeze watchlists continued to dominate this week with 23 out of 33 breakouts.
 
Breakouts for Week Beginning 09/21/15
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
09/23/15 ZOES SQZ Y 35.66 37.04 85 37.26 4.49 11.3
09/24/15 DGII CwH N 10.84 11.01 91 11.82 9.04 9.04
09/21/15 EBF SQZ Y 16.46 17.34 89 17.4 5.71 8.02
09/23/15 TSO SQZ Y 94.54 99.07 94 101.53 7.39 7.39
09/21/15 RLH SQZ Y 8.31 8.35 94 8.83 6.26 6.26
09/22/15 SHEN SQZ Y 41.44 41.92 96 42.97 3.69 5.57
09/23/15 LOGM SQZ Y 64.20 67.53 90 65.97 2.76 5.3
09/25/15 MB CwH N 16.10 16.76 90 16.76 4.10 4.1
09/24/15 MHO SQZ Y 24.48 24.72 82 25.46 4.00 4
09/24/15 IBCP SQZ Y 14.16 14.69 86 14.61 3.18 3.81
09/24/15 PFSW CwH N 13.76 14.06 88 14.24 3.49 3.49
09/21/15 XXIA SQZ Y 15.16 15.45 95 14.84 -2.11 2.24
09/24/15 WST SQZ Y 56.68 57.9 80 55.66 -1.80 2.22
09/21/15 MTN SQZ Y 105.87 108.13 85 107.42 1.46 2.13
09/24/15 AGII SQZ Y 55.65 56.74 85 56.63 1.76 1.99
09/21/15 STC SQZ Y 38.96 39.46 83 39.46 1.28 1.95
09/24/15 EFSC SQZ Y 24.51 24.95 93 24.76 1.02 1.84
09/24/15 INDB SQZ Y 45.34 45.4 81 46.16 1.81 1.81
09/25/15 WDFC CwH N 88.77 90.33 85 90.33 1.76 1.76
09/21/15 TXMD CwH N 7.33 7.45 92 6.33 -13.64 1.64
09/21/15 DOX SQZ Y 57.56 58.44 88 57.36 -0.35 1.53
09/25/15 EGBN CwH N 44.65 45.28 91 45.28 1.41 1.41
09/25/15 PFSW SQZ Y 14.07 14.24 91 14.24 1.21 1.21
09/24/15 QADA SQZ Y 26.32 26.51 89 26.13 -0.72 1.14
09/24/15 HTBI SQZ Y 18.38 18.57 90 18.43 0.27 1.03
09/24/15 WHF CwH N 13.32 13.37 85 13.43 0.83 0.83
09/24/15 BONA SQZ Y 11.91 11.99 97 11.97 0.50 0.76
09/24/15 MEOH HSB N 34.75 34.91 11 34.8 0.14 0.55
09/24/15 BNCN CwH N 22.17 22.25 94 22.25 0.36 0.36
09/24/15 TBNK SQZ Y 26.16 26.25 92 25.95 -0.80 0.34
09/25/15 DBL CwH N 24.70 24.75 84 24.75 0.20 0.2
09/23/15 KYTH SQZ Y 74.90 74.93 98 74.93 0.04 0.09
09/24/15 KYTH SQZ Y 74.94 74.95 98 74.93 -0.01 0.04
Weekly Average (33 breakouts) 1.48 2.89
*RS Rank on day before breakout.

 
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week.
 
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

How to Recognize EPS Trends and Find Next Reporting Date

One of the columns that you can filter for on our watchlists is Estimated EPS. This is the current analysts consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) to be announced at the company's next reporting date. While this number is important, as share price is often a function of forward earnings estimates, it is also desirable  to know if the estimate is increasing or decreasing.

Shown below (1) is a snapshot of our cup and handle watchlist for trading next Monday filtered for stocks that had above average volume on Friday. The stock with the highest estimated EPS was DPZ (Domino's Pizza). Clicking on the EPS  number, 0.75, will bring up a chart (2) showing how this estimated EPS has changed over the last 90, 60, 30, 7 days as well as the latest estimate.

In this case we see that the EPS Estimate has been increasing. Now, we would expect that the closer we get to the next reporting date, then the more accurate will the estimate be, so we will also want to know when that date is.

To find the next reporting date, we go to our Analytical Tools > EPS Trends menu choice (3).

This will bring up a table of all stocks for which we have EPS Trend data. By entering DPZ in  the search box, we obtain a table showing the historical EPS Estimates and the next reporting date in the final column (4).

EPS Trends

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 16314.7 -0.43% -8.46% Down
NASDAQ 4686.5 -2.92% -1.05% Down
S&P 500 1931.34 -1.36% -6.2% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
-0.43 %
NASDAQ Composite
-7.76 %
NASDAQ Composite
-4.19 %
NASDAQ Composite
-1.05 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Tobacco Products - Other Tobacco Products - Other Tobacco Products - Other Textile Industrial
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Broadcasting - Radio
+ 45
Aerospace/Defense - Major Diversified
+ 80
Long Distance Carriers
+ 156
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 207
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall TNK Teekay Tankers Ltd. 109
Top Technical TNK Teekay Tankers Ltd. 109
Top Fundamental CMN Cantel Medical Corp. 52
Top Tech. & Fund. LMAT LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. 56
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall MB MINDBODY, Inc. 71
Top Technical MB MINDBODY, Inc. 71
Top Fundamental BNCN BNC Bancorp 47
Top Tech. & Fund. BNCN BNC Bancorp 47
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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