Breakoutwatch Weekly Summary 03/10/18

You are receiving this email because you are or were a BreakoutWatch.com subscriber, or have subscribed to our weekly newsletter. This newsletter summarizes the breakout events of the week and provides additional guidance that does not fit into our daily format. It is published each weekend.

Contents
New Features this Week
Strategy Suggestions
Breakouts Summary
Breakouts Detail
Top Cup and Handle Chart Pattern Stocks
Breakouts Index
Best Performing Index
Best Performing Industry
Most Improved Industry

Weekly Commentary
NASDAQ Closes at New High

The markets received at least two pieces of good news this week. The first was relief that steel and aluminum tariffs will not be immediately imposed on Canada and Mexico and other countries may get relief also. This was in contradiction to earlier statements that there would be no exemptions when the tariffs were first announced. The second was the Friday jobs report which showed strong employment growth and a fall in average hourly earnings, which will reduce inflationary pressure and possible slow the rate at which the Fed will raise interest rates. This allowed the NASDAQ to close at a new high on Friday with a gain of 4.2% for the week.

Three accumulation days also allowed the number of breakouts to surge, especially from Volatility Squeeze situations.

NASDAQ Chart

New Features this Week
Average True Range added to Technical Analysis Charts

A new study was added to the Technical Analysis charts function which shows the "Average True Range" of prices for an individual stock. The image below shows how the add the ATR study to the chart and also shows the ATR on any given date (by moving your mouse over the candlesticks). The ATR range for the latest date is shown by default when the chart is generated. Our calculation of ATR uses a 14 day moving average.

How you can use this to set trailing stops is shown in the Strategy Suggestions section.

ATR Chart
Strategy Suggestions
Using ATR to Set Trailing Stops

The recent dramatic increase in volatility has motivated me to look at an alternative method of setting trailing stops. "Average True Range" is a measure of average volatility over a 14 day period (in our chart). When a stock moves out of that range, either above or below it, then a possible breakout or breakdown has occurred. When a stock moves back inside the average true range, then it can be concluded that the strength of the breakout has subsided and it is time to close the position and move on to look for other breakouts.

In the chart of CNAT, which broke out this week, we see that the latest ATR values are 5.47 - 6.44. CNET is trading above of its ATR so we conclude that the strength of the breakout is over if the price at the next session would fall to 6.44. If we set a trailing stop at that level then our gain so far will be somewhat protected (trailing stops always mean you will give up some of your profit if they are met). By checking the ATR values for our open positions each day, we can move our our trailing stop values up.

Next week I'll present a more detailed analysis of examples of this method in practice.

Our latest strategy suggestions are here.
Breakouts Summary by Watchlist for Week Beginning 03/05/18
List Breakouts Avg. Gain
CWH 28 3.1
SQZ 68 3.65
HTF
0
HSB
0
DB 7 1.47
Breakouts Detail for Week Beginning 03/05/18
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
2018-03-06 BZUN CWH y 39.98 48.21 95 47.88 19.76% 22.41%
2018-03-05 CNAT SQZ y 6.13 6.75 88 7.27 18.6% 28.71%
2018-03-05 KMG SQZ y 59.47 59.71 82 70.04 17.77% 9.65%
2018-03-08 RDNT SQZ y 10.36 11 83 11.8 13.9% 8.59%
2018-03-08 KMG SQZ y 61.93 63.48 84 70.04 13.1% 5.3%
2018-03-05 CCXI SQZ y 10.81 10.86 95 12.19 12.77% 7.68%
2018-03-05 MU CWH n 49.46 52.03 93 54.59 10.37% 12.15%
2018-03-06 HDP SQZ y 18.96 20.11 87 20.67 9.02% 8.54%
2018-03-05 SRI SQZ y 23.21 23.61 85 25.3 9% 6.59%
2018-03-06 CREE CWH n 38.69 41.76 89 41.95 8.43% 11.5%
2018-03-06 BLUE SQZ y 215.51 219.35 97 231.95 7.63% 7.47%
2018-03-09 RDNT SQZ y 11.01 11.8 89 11.8 7.18% 0.36%
2018-03-05 WIX CWH n 77.85 79.65 86 82.45 5.91% 6.62%
2018-03-06 BLKB CWH n 105.20 106.4 81 111.25 5.75% 5.32%
2018-03-08 KLXI SQZ y 69.23 70.2 87 73.12 5.62% 1.99%
2018-03-06 EVI SQZ y 36.51 36.7 91 38.55 5.59% 2.44%
2018-03-05 GWRE CWH n 83.40 84.94 83 87.95 5.46% 11.09%
2018-03-09 WYNN SQZ y 179.12 188.89 88 188.89 5.45% 2.95%
2018-03-05 MNTA SQZ y 17.56 17.6 84 18.5 5.35% 1.37%
2018-03-09 ALNY SQZ y 126.75 133.02 94 133.02 4.95% 1.08%
2018-03-05 XLRN SQZ y 41.92 42.77 86 43.99 4.94% 4.46%
2018-03-06 CONN SQZ y 32.81 33.65 97 34.4 4.85% 3.78%
2018-03-09 CONN SQZ y 32.81 34.4 96 34.4 4.85% 0.27%
2018-03-09 WING SQZ y 45.92 48.12 90 48.12 4.79% -0.41%
2018-03-05 CRCM SQZ y 18.14 18.16 84 18.97 4.58% 6.34%
2018-03-05 ACOR SQZ y 24.53 25.85 82 25.65 4.57% 6.93%
2018-03-08 SVVC CWH n 11.00 11.46 88 11.49 4.45% 5%
2018-03-06 AMAT CWH n 58.99 59.99 86 61.61 4.44% 2.02%
2018-03-06 GSVC CWH n 8.42 8.45 93 8.79 4.39% 9.98%
2018-03-09 BURL SQZ y 122.87 128.07 81 128.07 4.23% 0.3%
2018-03-08 STAA SQZ y 15.31 15.4 84 15.95 4.18% 2.55%
2018-03-06 PETS SQZ y 44.88 45.73 90 46.75 4.17% 7.66%
2018-03-09 KEM SQZ y 18.85 19.63 86 19.63 4.14% 0.69%
2018-03-09 KLXI SQZ y 70.21 73.12 88 73.12 4.14% 0.36%
2018-03-08 TGTX CWH n 15.90 16.45 93 16.55 4.09% 6.29%
2018-03-05 OPY SQZ y 26.51 26.65 91 27.55 3.92% 3.73%
2018-03-05 RVNC SQZ y 31.31 31.9 87 32.45 3.64% 6.52%
2018-03-09 STAA SQZ y 15.41 15.95 86 15.95 3.5% -2.34%
2018-03-05 ATI SQZ y 26.67 27 90 27.58 3.41% 5.36%
2018-03-05 PBF SQZ y 30.84 30.96 84 31.89 3.4% 4.67%
2018-03-05 SSNC SQZ y 50.24 51.79 88 51.93 3.36% 4.48%
2018-03-09 TTOO CWH n 6.58 6.8 93 6.8 3.34% -4.41%
2018-03-09 ESIO SQZ y 19.15 19.78 96 19.78 3.29% -0.26%
2018-03-06 FSS CWH n 22.14 22.17 82 22.83 3.12% 3.12%
2018-03-06 TBBK SQZ y 10.65 10.79 93 10.96 2.91% 3.76%
2018-03-06 DVAX SQZ y 17.06 17.3 95 17.55 2.87% 6.68%
2018-03-09 SHW DB n 409.58 421.16 70 421.16 2.83% -1.21%
2018-03-09 CVGI SQZ y 10.71 11.01 88 11.01 2.8% -0.56%
2018-03-06 FSLR SQZ y 66.06 67.45 92 67.9 2.79% 4.87%
2018-03-05 NRT SQZ y 8.39 8.45 85 8.62 2.74% 2.38%
2018-03-06 CACC SQZ y 330.83 335.04 87 339.58 2.64% 3.24%
2018-03-06 FLR SQZ y 57.07 57.57 83 58.52 2.54% 1.47%
2018-03-09 ALG SQZ y 113.43 116.15 80 116.15 2.4% -0.15%
2018-03-09 AMAT CWH n 60.18 61.61 86 61.61 2.38% -1.18%
2018-03-08 GWW DB n 274.00 274.7 90 280.43 2.35% 0.43%
2018-03-05 GAIA CWH n 13.68 14 83 14 2.34% 4.17%
2018-03-06 BIDU CWH n 257.56 258.73 83 263.56 2.33% 0.95%
2018-03-08 XLRN SQZ y 42.99 43.25 88 43.99 2.33% 1.47%
2018-03-09 PJT SQZ y 48.61 49.68 81 49.68 2.2% 0.25%
2018-03-09 GWW SQZ y 274.71 280.43 90 280.43 2.08% 0.17%
2018-03-09 SAIA DB y 74.60 76.1 85 76.1 2.01% -1.74%
2018-03-09 ITW DB y 167.04 170.3 70 170.3 1.95% -0.31%
2018-03-05 IMMU SQZ y 16.97 17.39 97 17.3 1.94% 6.54%
2018-03-09 ITCI CWH n 22.98 23.39 94 23.39 1.78% -3.48%
2018-03-08 MRVL CWH n 23.95 24.32 85 24.34 1.63% 1.96%
2018-03-09 CUTR SQZ y 49.66 50.45 94 50.45 1.59% -0.83%
2018-03-08 HRTG SQZ y 17.29 17.6 85 17.55 1.5% 5.84%
2018-03-09 HCA SQZ y 102.36 103.9 82 103.9 1.5% -0.17%
2018-03-08 HALO CWH n 20.32 20.53 89 20.615 1.45% 2.02%
2018-03-09 SORL SQZ y 6.51 6.6 84 6.6 1.38% 0.15%
2018-03-09 BIDU CWH n 260.00 263.56 82 263.56 1.37% -0.8%
2018-03-09 ESRX SQZ y 79.73 80.75 81 80.75 1.28% -0.09%
2018-03-09 CAR CWH n 47.07 47.67 91 47.67 1.27% -1.91%
2018-03-06 AWI SQZ y 60.61 61.15 80 61.25 1.06% 1.63%
2018-03-09 VNDA CWH n 19.70 19.9 87 19.9 1.02% -2.03%
2018-03-05 EWBC SQZ y 67.50 68.09 80 68.13 0.93% 2.56%
2018-03-06 OSTK SQZ y 60.56 61.15 98 61.1 0.89% 4.77%
2018-03-09 TXRH SQZ y 57.84 58.35 81 58.35 0.88% -0.76%
2018-03-05 BBY SQZ y 73.21 75.06 90 73.82 0.83% 5.61%
2018-03-09 BKI SQZ y 48.16 48.5 99 48.5 0.71% -0.54%
2018-03-09 CASH SQZ y 112.31 113 88 113 0.61% -0.41%
2018-03-09 OPY SQZ y 27.41 27.55 91 27.55 0.51% -0.4%
2018-03-09 DPS SQZ y 117.36 117.95 85 117.95 0.5% -0.48%
2018-03-09 AIT DB n 74.25 74.55 78 74.55 0.4% -1.89%
2018-03-08 LVS DB n 76.17 76.62 76 76.47 0.39% 1.29%
2018-03-09 MPWR DB n 124.44 124.87 75 124.87 0.35% -2.89%
2018-03-06 FLXN CWH n 26.65 26.99 80 26.73 0.3% 3.75%
2018-03-06 DST SQZ y 83.44 83.61 92 83.68 0.29% 0.31%
2018-03-09 HAYN CWH n 43.94 44.03 86 44.03 0.2% -1.91%
2018-03-09 ALGT SQZ y 174.01 174.3 83 174.3 0.17% -3.13%
2018-03-09 ICFI CWH n 61.25 61.3 81 61.3 0.08% -3.22%
2018-03-05 GNK CWH n 14.78 14.85 84 14.79 0.07% 2.77%
2018-03-06 EWBC SQZ y 68.10 69.07 81 68.13 0.04% 1.66%
2018-03-09 CALD SQZ y 35.94 35.95 93 35.95 0.03% -0.11%
2018-03-09 VR SQZ y 67.68 67.7 91 67.7 0.03% -0.01%
2018-03-05 SLP SQZ y 16.01 16.08 81 16 -0.06% 3.06%
2018-03-06 AAN CWH n 48.00 48.04 87 47.96 -0.08% 1.52%
2018-03-05 FIVE SQZ y 68.67 69.7 90 68.58 -0.13% 4.25%
2018-03-06 BBY SQZ y 75.07 76.77 90 73.82 -1.67% 3%
2018-03-06 RUN CWH n 7.30 7.43 86 7.15 -2.05% 1.92%
2018-03-05 VNOM SQZ y 23.35 23.4 86 22.8 -2.36% 1.28%
2018-03-05 LBC SQZ y 13.13 13.15 99 12.81 -2.44% 0.91%
2018-03-05 CF CWH n 44.48 44.56 89 41.5 -6.7% 1.17%
*RS Rank on day before breakout.
Top Rated Cup and Handle Stocks as of Friday March 09, 2018
Symbol BO
Price
BO
Vol.
Company Industry RS
Rank
Last
Close
VHI 6.63 264,720 Valhi - Inc. Common Stock Chemicals - Major Diversified 97 6.55
DAVE 8.15 108,495 Famous Dave's of America, Inc. Restaurants 94 7.35
These stocks meet our suggested screening factors for our Cup and Handle Chart Pattern watchlist.
See Revised Rules for Trading Cup and Handle Breakouts
Major Index Summary
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend1
Dow 25335.7
3.25% 2.49% Up
NASDAQ 7560.81
4.17% 9.52% Up
S&P 500 2786.57
3.54% 4.22% Up
1The Market Trend is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site here.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite NASDAQ Composite
10.54 %
NASDAQ Composite
18.88 %
NASDAQ Composite
9.52 %
Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Drug Related Products
Drug Related Products
Auto Parts Wholesale
Resorts & Casinos
Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Manufactured Housing
213
Manufactured Housing
213
Manufactured Housing
213
Medical Practitioners
215
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

 

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