Breakoutwatch Weekly Summary 12/22/18
You are receiving this email because you are or were a BreakoutWatch.com subscriber, or have subscribed to our weekly newsletter. This newsletter summarizes the breakout events of the week and provides additional guidance that does not fit into our daily format. It is published each weekend.
|Despite the market gloom, I wish all my subscribers and readers a joyous Noel and very best wishes for a healthy, happy and profitable New Year.|
Our Breakdown Alerts Averaged 10% Gain as NASDAQ Drops 8.2%
The NASDAQ dropped 8.2% and is now in what is considered to be a bear market having dropped 22.2% since the October 1 high. The chart below shows accelerating volume since the Fed announced a further Fed Funds rate increase of 0.25% on Wednesday. The Fed decision added to ongoing concerns over trade, the world economy, particularly China, the Government shutdown and a White House in apparent disarray.
With only 2 long positions making modest gains this week, it is now appropriate to focus more on potential profits from our short sale alerts. We follow two patterns that can generate short sale returns: Head and Shoulders Top (HS) and the 50 Day Breakdown (SS). This week, these two patterns generated an average return of 9.7%. Details are presented in two tables below.
The head and shoulders top pattern is recognized as one of the most reliable bearish trend reversal patterns. Our methodology for selecting stocks in this pattern is shown here.
The SS list is compiled by selecting stocks that meet a specific set of criteria. These criteria are based on the guidelines offered in How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short by William O'Neil with Gil Morales, with additional requirements and constraints of our own. The methodology is detailed here.
No new features this week
Our latest strategy suggestions are here.
|Brkout Date||Symbol||Base||Squeeze||Brkout Price||Brkout Day Close||RS Rank*||Last Close||Current % off BOP||Gain at Intraday High|
|*RS Rank on day before breakout.|
|Symbol||Base||B'down Price||B'down Day Close||B'Down Day % Gain1||Last
|Gain % at Last Close2||Gain % at
|12/21/18||ENPH||SS||5.00||4.74||5.5 %||4.74||5.5 %||10.4 %|
|12/21/18||BGNE||SS||128.04||124.50||2.8 %||124.5||2.8 %||5.8 %|
|12/21/18||CSOD||SS||50.16||46.75||7.3 %||46.75||7.3 %||8 %|
|12/20/18||BGNE||SS||129.82||128.04||1.4 %||124.5||4.3 %||7.2 %|
|12/19/18||XLNX||HS||88.12||85.22||3.4 %||81.51||8.1 %||8.6 %|
|12/19/18||VCEL||HS||16.95||15.97||6.1 %||14.34||18.2 %||18.3 %|
|12/18/18||ENBL||SS||14.67||14.19||3.4 %||13.28||10.5 %||11.4 %|
|12/17/18||SHOP||SS||140.17||129.66||8.1 %||122.41||14.5 %||15.4 %|
|12/17/18||XLNX||HS||87.63||87.18||0.5 %||81.51||7.5 %||8 %|
|12/17/18||TDS||HS||34.00||33.20||2.4 %||31.64||7.5 %||8.2 %|
|12/17/18||FRO||SS||6.70||6.10||9.8 %||5.55||20.7 %||22 %|
|12/17/18||GDOT||SS||79.42||78.06||1.7 %||70.69||12.3 %||12.9 %|
|12/17/18||ENBL||SS||14.87||14.67||1.4 %||13.28||12 %||12.9 %|
|12/14/18||TGNA||HS||12.69||12.47||1.8 %||10.75||18 %||19.1 %|
|Average gain until last close||9.7%|
|1 The % gain from the breakdown
price to the breakout day close assuming a short at the
breakdown price and a cover at the closing price
2 The % gain from the breakdown price to the latest close assuming a short at the breakdown price and a cover at the latest closing price. Stocks within 5% of the breakdown price are shown in green.
3 The % gain from the breakdown price to the lowest intraday price since breakout assuming a short at the breakdown price and a cover at the lowest intraday price (very best case scenario)..
|These stocks meet our suggested screening
factors for our Cup and Handle Chart Pattern watchlist.
See Revised Rules for Trading Cup and Handle Breakouts
|Index||Value||Change Week||Change YTD||Trend1|
1The Market Trend is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site here.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
|1 Week||13 Weeks||26 Weeks||Year-to-Date|
|1 Week||3 Weeks||13 Weeks||26 Weeks|
||Auto Parts Stores
||Auto Parts Stores
|Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site|
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