Breakoutwatch Weekly Summary 10/30/21

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Weekly Commentary
NASDAQ Sets New Intraday and Closing High; ASYS Breakout Analysis

The week was characterized by a strong showing among the mega cap stocks which gave the NASDAQ a weekly gain of 2.7% and a new closing high on Friday. Q3 earnings reported this week were mostly above expectations but forward guidance often identified continued supply chain issues as likely constraining future growth. The markets apparently viewed this as a short term problem for the big technology stocks and took a longer view that their future earnings justified higher valuations. This was not the case for AMAZON (AMZN), however, which fell 4% after reporting a 15% y-on-y earnings increase. TESLA (TSLA) was the week's biggest winner with a 22.5% gain after announcing a sale of 100,000 vehicles to Hertz.

Among the week's breakouts, the Volatility Squeeze pattern outperformed the cup and handle with an average gain of 1.9%. There were some strong performers from both patterns, though, as the table below shows and 2 high performers from the High Tight Flag pattern.

ASYS Breakout Analysis

Amtech Systems, Inc. (ASYS) broke out from a Volatility Squeeze pattern on Wednesday. As a reminder, a volatility squeeze (SQZ) occurs when volatility in a stock price falls to where the Bollinger Bands (a measure of volatility) falls with the Keltner Channel (a measure of Average True Range) When volatility returns to a 'normal' level there can be a breakout to the up, or lower,side. We only show volatility squeeze situations where a breakout to the upside is likely. In the case of ASYS this week, the squeeze occurred within a longer term cup and handle base. This was an indicator that is a breakout did occur, then it was likely to be quite strong.
ASYS Chart
Chart of the Week

Freedom Holding Corp. is building the right side of it's handle and closed Friday on above average volume. According to our price model, it has the highest probability of breaking out on Monday.

FRHC Chart
New Features this Week

No new features this week
Strategy Suggestions
Our latest strategy suggestions are here.
Breakouts Summary by Watchlist for Week Beginning 10/25/21
List Breakouts Avg. Gain
CWH 14 0.17
SQZ 28 1.9
HTF 2 6.84
Breakouts Gaining at Least 5% for Week Beginning 10/25/21
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze Brkout Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
2021-10-27 ASYS SQZ y 12.34 12.44 92 15.02 21.72% 23.18%
2021-10-26 PERI CWH n 23.37 29.08 94 28.42 21.61% 29.14%
2021-10-25 SM HTF n 32.07 32.63 99 34.32 7.02% 16.43%
2021-10-29 METC HTF n 17.43 18.59 99 18.59 6.66% 8.72%
2021-10-25 SMPL SQZ y 37.28 38.82 80 39.65 6.36% 8.1%
2021-10-28 WNEB SQZ y 9.22 9.84 84 9.73 5.53% 8.21%
2021-10-29 USIO SQZ y 6.02 6.35 95 6.35 5.48% 7.14%
2021-10-26 PDLB SQZ y 14.76 15.49 85 15.51 5.08% 6.64%
*RS Rank on day before breakout.
CwH Stocks Likely to Close above BoP at Next Session*
Symbol Company Industry RS Rank Last Close BoP % off BoP
FRHC Freedom Holding Corp. Capital Markets 90 66.69 67.90 98.22
PNRG PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation Oil & Gas E&P 90 68.88 71.50 96.34
RIVE Riverview Financial Corporation Banks - Regional 86 13.28 13.56 97.94
RCKY Rocky Brands, Inc. Footwear & Accessories 86 54.55 55.09 99.02
ESXB Community Bankers Trust Corporation. Banks - Regional 91 11.66 11.85 98.4
MSTR MicroStrategy Inco Software - Application 95 715.06 777.07 92.02
EXPI eXp World Holdings, Inc. Real Estate Services 91 51.6 55.43 93.09
FOE Ferro Corporation Specialty Chemicals 82 21.02 21.20 99.15
OZK Bank OZK Banks - Regional 80 44.67 46.56 95.94
SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. Footwear & Accessories 82 45.1 46.35 97.3
TDC Teradata Corporation Information Technology Services 95 56.56 59.38 95.25
BWB Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. Banks - Regional 82 18.09 18.35 98.58
SUM Summit Materials, Inc. Building Materials 89 35.65 36.40 97.94
*These stocks were selected using our price breakout model. This model correctly selected CWH stocks that met or exceeded their breakout price with 80% probability over Jan. 2019 to Nov. 2020. This does not imply that on any one day, 80% or any of the stocks selected will meet or exceed their breakout price.
Top Rated Cup and Handle Stocks as of Friday October 29, 2021
Symbol BO
Company Industry RS
OII 16.36 1,220,964 Oceaneering International - Inc. Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 94 13.60
GOSS 14.30 803,218 Gossamer Bio - Inc. Biotechnology 90 12.42
PUMP 10.80 1,263,798 ProPetro Holding Corp. Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 89 9.59
WTTR 6.77 560,561 Select Energy Services - Inc. Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 82 6.01
HOPE 15.04 872,982 Hope Bancorp - Inc. Banks - Regional 80 14.59
These stocks meet our suggested screening factors for our Cup and Handle Chart Pattern watchlist.
See Revised Rules for Trading Cup and Handle Breakouts
Major Index Summary
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend1
Dow 35819.6
0.4% 17.03% Up
NASDAQ 15498.4
2.71% 20.25% Up
S&P 500 4605.38
1.33% 22.61% Up
1The Market Trend is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site here.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQ Composite
S&P 500
Best Performing Industry
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Airports & Air Services
Luxury Goods
Grocery Stores
Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site


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