Breakoutwatch Weekly Summary 06/25/22

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Weekly Commentary
NASDAQ Gains 7.5% Led By Mega Caps; Friday a Possible FTD

Last Friday's bounce from an oversold level continued this week led by the mega cap stocks. For example, the Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) gained 8.0%. postulated this was likely due their perceived ability to hold their strength in the face of a weakening economy. MGK is down 26.4% for the year.

Looking at the chart, its possible to consider Friday a "follow through day" being on the 6th day after the upturn on June 17. However, we saw a recent potential FTD on May 13 which quickly faded. With so much uncertainty regarding inflation, earnings and the war, it's possible this rally will fail also. Our Trend Reversal signals continue to remain negative.
The upswing did bring some positive breakouts, with 31 gaining at least 5%. See table below.
Chart of the Week
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)

As before, I look for stocks that are potentially starting to build a new base by looking for those moving above their Average True Range. This week there were 59 that met that test, with 14 of them being REITs. REITs have been beaten down, but are now attracting buyers because of their potential to deliver higher dividends to offset inflation.
Of the 14 REITs in the screen, it's difficult to recommend any individual REIT. So instead I am posting the Vanguard Real Estate ETF, VNQ, which I own personally.

VNQ Chart

New Features this Week

No new features this week
Strategy Suggestions
Our latest strategy suggestions are here.
Breakouts Summary by Watchlist for Week Beginning 06/20/22
List Breakouts Avg. Gain
CWH 5 4.79
SQZ 26 2.61
Breakouts Gaining at Least 5% for Week Beginning 06/20/22
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze Brkout Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
2022-06-21 UFCS CWH n 33.49 34.33 96 37.12 10.84% 11.26%
2022-06-23 TMDX SQZ y 28.99 31.9 95 31.3 7.97% 12.83%
2022-06-21 QUIK CWH n 7.97 8.5 98 8.54 7.15% 10.66%
2022-06-23 CORT SQZ y 22.35 23.25 90 23.8 6.49% 6.62%
2022-06-23 DRE SQZ y 54.05 55.47 81 57.45 6.29% 6.66%
2022-06-23 IONS SQZ y 37.25 39.02 92 39.25 5.37% 6.04%
*RS Rank on day before breakout.
CwH Stocks Likely to Close above BoP at Next Session*
Symbol Company Industry RS Rank Last Close BoP % off BoP
SRLP Sprague Resources LP Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 94 18.95 19.03 99.58
JILL J. Jill, Inc. Apparel Retail 95 18.83 19.47 96.71
CVBF CVB Financial Corporation Banks - Regional 95 24.76 25.22 98.18
*These stocks were selected using our CWH price breakout model. This model selects stocks likely to close above the breakout price at the next session. When backtested over the three years beginning January 2019 until October 28, 2021, 80% of the stocks selected closed above their breakout price. This does not mean that on any day, 80% of the stocks selected will breakout, but it is the expectation over an extended period of time.
Top Rated Cup and Handle Stocks as of Friday June 24, 2022
Symbol BO
Company Industry RS
TCDA 11.38 806,493 Tricida - Inc. Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic 98 9.66
CTT 12.39 833,847 CatchMark Timber Trust - Inc. REIT - Specialty 94 10.35
VRRM 16.73 1,476,984 Verra Mobility Corporation Security & Protection Services 89 15.77
These stocks meet our suggested screening factors for our Cup and Handle Chart Pattern watchlist.
See Revised Rules for Trading Cup and Handle Breakouts
Major Index Summary
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend1
Dow 31500.7
5.39% -13.31% Down
NASDAQ 11607.6
7.49% -25.81% Down
S&P 500 3911.74
6.45% -17.93% Down
1The Market Trend is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site here.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite Dow Jones
Dow Jones
Dow Jones
Best Performing Industry
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Oil & Gas Integrated
Thermal Coal
REIT - Residential
Luxury Goods
Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site


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