The goal of our CANTATA Evaluator (CE) is to provide a method for
evaluating stocks so those with the very best combination
of both timing, fundamental and technical attributes get the
highest scores. To make the process transparent to our
subscribers, and to allow them to give extra emphasis to timing,
fundamentals or technicals depending on their personal preference,
we divide the CE into three components. Each stock is assigned a
timing score, technical score (CET) and a fundamental score (CEF)
with the final score (CE) a combination of the CET and CEF scores.
The timeliness score is based on stocks that are on our
watchlists. Since the patterns we recognize are somewhat limited,
we do not include the timeliness score in the overall score
because it would not provide a sound basis for comparison of all
stocks.
The CET and CEF scores are also used to assign stocks to "CE
Zones". Read the CE Zone
Methodology here.
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The cornerstone of our methodology is the selection of stocks
that provide a valid entry point. This is either on breakout, or
shortly after while the stock is still within a buyable range. We
assign a maximum of two points to our timeliness rating as
follows:
- 1 point if currently listed on CwHwatch, FBwatch or DBwatch
- 1 point if it broke out in last 5 days and within 5% of BoP
Because a stock can form a second pivot within 5 days of
breakout, it is possible for a stock to earn two points under this
scheme.
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In How to Make Money in Stocks, O’Neil describes the
preferred technical condition of a stock at the time of a
breakout, but does not provide a more general description of a
’technically healthy’ stock. As the goal of the CET is to provide
some means of determining the technical health of a stock whether
or not it is setting up for a breakout, we assign a score based on
objective measurements of the stock’s price/volume action over the
intermediate to long term. Scores do not take into account very
near term action of the stock such as a recent breakdown,
reversal, a broken short-term trend etc.
For each criteria, if a stock meets the suggested minimum
preferred value, we assign a full point. If the stock falls below
the lowest acceptable value for the criteria, we assign zero
points. If the stock falls between these two extremes, we
assign a prorated score between zero and one.
- Price Relative to 50 day Moving Average, Price Relative
to 200 day Moving Average, 50 vs. 200 day Moving Average
As these three technical criteria are interdependent, scores are
assigned from 0 to 3 points. If the price is above both the 50
and 200 day moving averages and the 50 day is above the 200 day
moving average, 3 points. If the price is below both the 50 and
200 day moving averages and the 50 day is below the 200 day
moving average, 0 points. Points are prorated for conditions
between.
- Relative Strength Rank (RSRank)
If the RSRank equals 99, 1 point. If the RSRank
equals 1, 0 points. Points are prorated for RSRank values
between 1 and 99.
- Rank in Industry
Stocks wihin the industry are ranked in descending
RSRank order, with the percent off the 52 week high used as a
secondary sort. If the stock is ranked first in the industry, 1
point. If the stock is ranked last in the industry, 0 points.
Points are prorated for ranks in industry between first and
last.
- Price Relative to 52 Week High
If the stock’s closing price is less than or equal to 15%
off the 52 week high, 1 point. If the stock’s closing price is
more than 60% off the 52 week high, 0 points. Points are
prorated for percent off 52 week high between 15% and 60%.
- Up/Down Ratio (U/D)
If the U/D is greater than or equal to 2.0, 1 point. If the
U/D is less than 0.7, 0 points. Points are prorated for U/D
values between 0.7 and 2.
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The fundamental score (CEF) includes all CANTATA criteria which drive
the stock’s price/volume action. Criteria here are derived from
three sources. First, the historical fundamentals of the
underlying business are used as an indication of
management’s ability to effectively invest resources and generate
profits over time. Second, forward estimates of growth are used to
indicate there is an expectation growth will continue in the near
future. Third, institutional ownership trends are used to show
large investors’ willingness to invest in the company based on
past and expected future trends.
For each criteria, if a stock meets the suggested minimum
preferred value, we assign a full point. If the stock falls below
the lowest acceptable value for the criteria, we assign zero
points. If the stock falls between these two extremes, we
assign a prorated score between zero and one. In cases where the
measurement is a “go/no-go” (such as positive earnings vs.
negative earnings), the score is either a one or zero. Note that
for Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s), Closed End Funds, and other
stocks where fundamental data is unavailable will have a
fundamental score of zero.
- Quarter over Quarter (QoQ) Earnings Growth Rates
If the QoQ earnings per share (EPS) growth rates in the
latest two quarters are greater than or equal to 18%, 1
point. If EPS growth rates in the latest two quarters are
negative, 0 points. Points are prorated for growth rates between
0 and 18%. Slightly more weight is placed on the most recent
quarter than on the previous quarter in order to derive a
combined score for both quarters.
- Positive Quarterly Earnings
If the earnings per share (EPS) in the latest two quarters
is positive, 1 point. If the EPS in the latest two quarters is
negative, 0 points. Slightly more weight is placed on the most
recent quarter than on the previous quarter in order to derive a
combined score for both quarters.
- Quarterly Earnings Growth Rate Acceleration
QoQ EPS growth rates over the last four quarters are used
to determine if the QoQ EPS growth rate in one quarter is
greater than the QoQ EPS growth rate in the previous quarter. If
the growth rate in the recent quarter is positive and greater
than the previous quarter, 1 point. If the growth rate in the
recent quarter is greater or equal to 25% but less than the
previous quarter, 0.5 points. (This allows for deceleration down
to a still very high level of growth.) If the growth rate
in the recent quarter is less than 25% and less than the
previous quarter, 0 points. Recent quarters are weighted
slightly more than older quarters in order to derive a combined
score for all four quarters.
- Year over Year (YoY) Earnings Growth Rates
If the YoY EPS growth rates in the latest four completed
fiscal years are greater than or equal to 25%, 1 point. If the
YoY EPS growth rates are negative, 0 points. Points are prorated
for growth rates between 0 and 25%. Recent fiscal years are
weighted slightly more than older fiscal years in order to
derive a combined score for all four fiscal years.
- Quarter over Quarter Sales Growth Rates
If the QoQ sales growth rates in the latest two quarters
are greater than or equal to 25%, 1 point. If sales growth rates
in the latest two quarters are negative, 0 points. Points are
prorated for growth rates between 0 and 25%. Slightly more
weight is placed on the most recent quarter than on the previous
quarter in order to derive a combined score for both quarters.
- Quarterly Sales Growth Rate Acceleration
QoQ sales growth rates over the last four quarters are used
to determine if the QoQ sales growth rate in one quarter is
greater than the QoQ sales growth rate in the previous quarter.
If the growth rate in the recent quarter is positive and greater
than the previous quarter, 1 point. If the growth rate in the
recent quarter is greater or equal to 25% but less than the
previous quarter, 0.5 points. (This allows for deceleration down
to a still very high level of growth.) If the growth rate in the
recent quarter is less than 25% and less than the previous
quarter, 0 points. Recent quarters are weighted slightly more
than older quarters in order to derive a combined score for all
four quarters.
- Forward Earnings Growth Rates
If the forward EPS growth rate estimate is greater than or
equal to 15% and greater than the EPS growth rate for the most
recent quarter, 1 point. If the forward EPS growth rate estimate
is greater than or equal to 15% but less than the most recent
quarter, 0.5 points. If the forward EPS growth rate estimate is
less than 15% or unavailable, 0 points.
- Institutional Ownership
Points are equally weighted between two components of
institutional ownership as reported in the most recent available
quarter. First, if the number of institutional owners is
greater than or equal to 5, 1 point. If the number of
institutional owners is less than 1, 0 points. Points are
prorated for the number of insitutional owners between 1 and 5.
Second, if the number of net shares purchased by
institutional owners is zero or positive, 1 point. If the number
of net shares purchased by institutional owners is negative, 0
points.
- Return on Equity (ROE)
If the ROE for the trailing twelve months (TTM) is greater
than or equal to 17%, 1 point. If the ROE is negative, 0
points. Points are prorated for ROE values between 0 and 17%.
- Cash Flow
Points are weighted between three components of operating
cash flow. Half the weighting is placed on the relationship
of operating cash flow to earnings. If the operating cash
flow is greater than or equal to 20% more than the earnings, 1
point. If cash flow is less than 20% greater than earnings, 0
points. Twenty-five percent of the weighting is placed on operating
cash flow in the most recent quarter. If the cash flow in
the most recent quarter is positive, 1 point. If the cash flow
in the most recent quarter is negative, 0 points. Twenty-five
percent of the weighting is placed on operating cash flow
over the trailing 12 months. If cash flow in the trailing
12 months is positive, 1 point. If the cash flow in the trailing
12 months is negative, 0 points.
- Net Margins
Points are determined based on net margins over the three
previously completed fiscal years. If the net margin in the most
recent fiscal year is the maximum net margin over the previous
three years, 1 point. If the net margin in the most recent
fiscal year is the minimum net margin over the previous three
years, 0 points. Points are prorated for net margin in the most
recent fiscal year as a percentage of the maximum net margins
over the previous three years. For example, if the most recent
fiscal year net margin is 50% of the maximum net margin over the
previous 3 fiscal years, 0.5 points are assigned.
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