Weekly Newsletter 03/11/06
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Please read this weeks top tip for a correction to last weeks report.

Market Summary

The markets continue to be focused on the probability that interest rates will continue to rise in the near to mid-term. Consequently, this week we saw a movement from stocks that are heavily dependant on capital borrowing to finance growth, which tend to be newer companies and technology stocks, towards more established larger market cap stocks that are considered better able to absorb higher interest rates. A fall in energy costs also helped the larger companies. The DJI gained 0.5% for the week while the S&P 500 slipped 0.44% and the NASDAQ Composite suffered most dropping 1.76%. Friday brought the first positive day of the week for the three major indexes as good news on the economy and the outlook for interest rates helped the markets regain some ground. Significantly more jobs were created in February than in January indicating that the economy is still growing. Inflation pressure from wages seemed well contained as average wages rose only slightly and unemployment rose also. More people looking for work increases the labor supply and means employers don't have to offer higher wages to attract workers. Bond yields and their affect on interest rates and their potential to suck capital from the equities markets continue to be a concern as the 10-year Treasury note rose to a yield of 4.76% on Friday.

In our continuing study of the NASDAQ market, this week we will look at a weekly chart and see that the index is somewhat precariously balanced and learn a little about our T/A (Technical Analysis) charts as well. We like to use 1 and 2 standard deviations for our BB bands because they show the extent of a stock's movement from its prior positions. Firstly, notice that the tightening of the bands is an indication that the direction of the market is becoming uncertain. This tightening is preceded by our market model issuing an exit signal and if the direction is resolved to the upside, it issues an enter signal. In case one, it quickly resolved itself to the upside and an enter signal was issued promptly. In case two, there was a fake to the downside before an upward resumption occurred. Case two illustrates that the primary trend following a band narrowing is uncertain and fakes both to the up and downside occur. As the January rally waned, we again issued an exit signal until the upward trend resumed. We now see a move to the downside and the possibility arises that the initial move upwards was a fake to the upside in a similar way to the case 2 fake to the downside.This is a round-about way of saying that the next move is hard to discern from here. We haven't discussed the dots on the chart, but they represent the PSAR values. A dot below the candle indicates that the preferred position is long while a dot above the candle indicates that the preferred position is short. Because of the way the PSAR is calculated, we can show you the PSAR for next week and that is the final dot on the chart. If the intraday low falls below 2240 next week then the PSAR will switch to short. However, our market model requires that there be five distribution days in fifteen sessions and the count currently stands at two, so there is still quite a lot of leeway before the model switches. The model has generally been a reliable tool to indicate when to enter and leave the markets, as our newsletter of 2/11/06, Using Market Signals for ETF Trading, demonstrated.

Coldwater Creek (CWTR) was the standout breakout of the week with a gain of 14.23% above its breakout price.

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 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

A new forum was established to allow discussion of strategies for using our service and tools.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Update on combining Expected Gain and the Sell Assistant.

Last week we presented backtested data that showed exceptionally good returns when using our revised Expected Gain model to buy at the open following a confirmed breakout and using the Sell Alerts available under TradeWatch to sell at the open following a sell alert. Unfortunately the data inadvertently used the breakout price as the buy-at-open price which biased the results substantially to the upside. We regret the error and have run the analysis again and present the results below. While not as impressive, the results are still extremely good. {Note: the newsletter for 3/4/06 in the archive now contains the corrected data].

While re-running the analysis we noted that buying at the open when the price was 5% or more higher than the breakout price reduced the overall returns so we present two sets of results, one using no limit price and the other using a limit of 5%. For comparison, we show the results from last week using the breakout price as the buy-price.

Buy at Open/Sell on Alert Strategies Results Summary
Strategy
Avg. % Gain
Avg. Hold Days
No. of Trades
Comparison to buy at BoP
Buy at Open when Expected Gain > 75% if in-range (< 5% above BoP)
  Average of All Trades
11.45%
46
185
 
  Annualized Return
90.70%
 
Buy at Open when Expected Gain > 75% with no limit
  Average of All Trades
10.27%
46
436
17.3%
  Annualized Return
80.92%
135.4%
Buy at Open when Expected Gain > 100% if in-range (< 5% above BoP)
  Average of All Trades
21.22%
50
48
  Annualized Return
155.17%
Buy at Open when Expected Gain > 100% with no limit
  Average of All Trades
18.08%
47
87
26.6%
  Annualized Return
139.11%
199.1%

An excel spreadsheet documenting these results is available here.

The Expected Gain after breakout is visible to subscribers and shown on the Recent Breakouts report. In the coming week we will add breakouts where the expected gain exceeds 75% to the TradeWatch lists and produce tracking reports similar to that for the Best Return list.

This analysis has also given us additional insights into how to improve our Sell Assistant and if successful, we will report on that next week.


If you think our service has great potential but you are too busy, or lack the technical analysis skills to apply our methods, you should consider talking to one of the investment advisors listed below.

Investment Advisors Using our Service

TradeRight Securities, located in a suburb of Chicago, is a full services investment management company and broker/dealer. They have been a subscriber, and user, of BreakoutWatch.com for some time now. They practice CANTATA and use Breakoutwatch.com as a “research analyst”. You can learn more about TradeRight Securities at: www.traderightsecurities.com. If you’re interested in speaking to a representative, simply call them toll-free at 1-800-308-3938 or e-mail gdragel@traderightsecurities.com.

PivotPoint Advisors, LLC takes a technical approach to investment planning and management. A breakoutwatch.com subscriber since May, 2004, they use breakouts, market signals, and now TradeWatch to enhance returns for their clients. Learn more at http://pivotpointadvisors.net or contact John Norquay at 608-826-0840 or by email at john.norquay@pivotpointadvisors.net.

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 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Market1
Signal
Dow 11076.3 0.5% 3.35% enter
NASDAQ 2262.04 -1.76% 2.57% enter
S&P 500 1281.58 -0.44% 2.67% enter
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
0.5 %
Dow Jones
-0.19 %
Dow Jones
1.69 %
Dow Jones
3.35 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Machinery-Const/Mining Machinery-Const/Mining Machinery-Const/Mining Machinery-Const/Mining
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Beverages-Soft Drink
+ 42
Healthcare-Wholesale/Distrb
+ 104
Machinery-Farm
+ 112
Telecomm-FiberOptics
+ 182
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone (similar to IBD). The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 23 32.15 3.28% 0.73%
Last Week 21 33.85 5.48% 0.57%
13 Weeks 491 35.15 13.71%
3.03%
Sector
Industry
Breakout Count for Week
Business Services
Business Svcs-Sec/Safety
2
Healthcare
Healthcare-Drugs/Ethical
2
Special
Special-ClsdEndFunds/Bond
2
Auto & Truck
Auto & Truck-OEM
1
Banks
Banks-Midwest
1
Business Services
Business Svcs-Staffing
1
Chemical
Chemical-Plastics
1
Computer
Computer-Peripheral Equip
1
Computer Software
Comp Software-Enterprise
1
Electronics
Electr-Semicndtr Mfg
1
Finance
Finance-Misc Services
1
Finance
Finance-Invest Management
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Instruments
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Biomed/Genetic
1
Internet
Internet-ISP/Content
1
Internet
Internet-Secur/Network Svcs
1
Paper
Paper
1
Retail
Retail-Mail Order/Direct
1
Retail
Retail-Major Disc Chains
1
Telecomm
Telecomm-Services Fgn
1
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall EMIS Emisphere Technologies 97
Top Technical RMBS Rambus Inc 31
Top Fundamental BOT CBOT Holdings Inc 28
Top Tech. & Fund. MED Medifast Inc 94
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall ARGN Amerigon Inc 91
Top Technical IDN Intelli Check Inc 87
Top Fundamental DRIV Digital River Inc 40
Top Tech. & Fund. DRIV Digital River Inc 40
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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