Breakoutwatch Weekly Summary 01/06/18

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Contents
New Features this Week
Strategy Suggestions
Breakouts Summary
Breakouts Detail
Top Cup and Handle Chart Pattern Stocks
Breakouts Index
Best Performing Index
Best Performing Industry
Most Improved Industry

Weekly Commentary
New Breakout Prediction Model, New Trading Suggestions and New Breakout Criteria

See Strategy Suggestions below for important new insights.

The NASDAQ celebrated the New Year with 4 days of consecutive new highs and strong accumulation to rise 3.4% for the week. It would be surprising if this level of euphoria would continue, so some consolidation is likely in the week ahead.

NASDAQ Chart

New Features this Week
New Breakout Criteria

Based on the research I did over the break, I have decided to lower the volume threshold for declaring a breakout for all long position watchlists to the 50 day average volume level. That is a breakout will be counted as such if the volume exceeds the 50 day average and the price closes above the breakout price. For Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Head and Shoulders patterns this is now consistent with the breakout criteria for High Tight Flag and Volatility Squeeze patterns. Consequently, there are many more cup and handle breakouts now as seen below.

New Breakout Prediction Indicator for the Cup and Handle watchlist

breakout prediction

A new column "Pred. Brkout" was added to the Cup and Handle Watchlist to indicate if a breakout is predicted. If it is predicted a "Y" will appear in this column. See my notes on the Breakout Prediction metric

Less than a hundred stocks in any year will meet the criteria for this metric, so a "Y" in this column will be rare. To sort the column, click on the up/down arrows next to the column heading

New Filter Setting


You can now filter the watchlist for stocks meeting the "Y" criteria.


Strategy Suggestions

I followed the work I did to develop the Breakout Prediction metric, with an analysis of the criteria that would have led to the best trading results in 2017. This has resulted in new suggestions for "Buying on Alert" or "Buying at the Next Open". These are described here. As long as the current market trend continues, these suggestions should be quite profitable. A notable feature of the recent trend has been low volatility and so a tighter trailing stop can be used as shown in the suggestions.
Breakouts Summary by Watchlist for Week Beginning 01/01/18
List Breakouts Avg. Gain
CWH 21 0.44
SQZ 8 3.84
HTF 5 3.64
HSB
0
DB 1 4.21
Breakouts Detail for Week Beginning 01/01/18
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
2018-01-05 IO HTF n 20.54 23 99 22.95 11.73% 13.19%
2018-01-02 VNET CWH n 8.23 8 91 9.16 11.3% 14.46%
2018-01-02 WUBA SQZ y 71.58 76 95 79.57 11.16% 13.38%
2018-01-03 TEAM SQZ y 47.07 50 92 51.87 10.2% 11.39%
2018-01-03 GLMD CWH n 9.78 10 95 10.7 9.41% 9.41%
2018-01-03 VRX HTF n 22.81 23 93 23.85 4.56% 7.1%
2018-01-02 SILC DB y 71.99 75 92 75.02 4.21% 8.28%
2018-01-04 CNHI CWH n 13.64 14 85 14.05 3.01% 3.52%
2018-01-04 TEAM SQZ y 50.41 52 94 51.87 2.9% 4.01%
2018-01-03 CH CWH n 9.13 9 84 9.36 2.52% 2.96%
2018-01-04 HDNG SQZ y 17.34 17 88 17.76 2.42% 3.52%
2018-01-03 FMC CWH n 96.02 97 87 98.08 2.15% 2.78%
2018-01-05 OSTK HTF n 82.70 84 99 84.35 2% 4.66%
2018-01-04 QDEL CWH n 46.14 46 94 46.89 1.63% 3.16%
2018-01-02 UCTT SQZ y 23.10 24 87 23.44 1.47% 6.36%
2018-01-02 IXYS SQZ y 23.96 24 91 24.3 1.42% 2.25%
2018-01-02 PRGS CWH n 43.12 43 86 43.61 1.14% 1.76%
2018-01-03 CHGG CWH n 16.67 17 94 16.79 0.72% 2.22%
2018-01-03 SILC SQZ y 74.57 77 93 75.02 0.6% 4.53%
2018-01-03 CRESY SQZ y 22.35 22 80 22.48 0.58% 1.57%
2018-01-03 SBLK CWH y 12.14 12 90 12.2 0.49% 4.94%
2018-01-05 CVCO CWH n 156.50 157 81 156.85 0.22% 0.38%
2018-01-05 BR CWH n 92.44 93 83 92.56 0.13% 0.23%
2018-01-05 CKH HTF n 49.15 49 83 49.15 0% 0.08%
2018-01-04 BETR HTF n 12.15 12 92 12.14 -0.08% 1.32%
2018-01-04 GNK CWH n 13.92 14 87 13.87 -0.36% 3.02%
2018-01-04 KFRC CWH n 26.75 27 80 26.65 -0.37% 1.12%
2018-01-04 CARB CWH n 25.80 26 84 25.6 -0.78% 0.58%
2018-01-04 CBAY CWH n 9.79 10 98 9.69 -1.02% 4.7%
2018-01-03 CTLT CWH n 42.22 42 83 41.66 -1.33% 0.81%
2018-01-04 MXIM CWH n 54.07 54 80 53.34 -1.35% 0.96%
2018-01-02 XENT CWH n 34.40 35 94 33.85 -1.6% 2.03%
2018-01-03 NTGR CWH n 61.35 62 82 59.55 -2.93% 0.98%
2018-01-02 SRPT CWH y 57.31 58 95 54.87 -4.26% 4.61%
2018-01-02 LE CWH n 20.35 20 87 18.4 -9.58% 2.06%
*RS Rank on day before breakout.
Top Rated Cup and Handle Stocks as of Friday January 05, 2018
Symbol BO
Price
BO
Vol.
Company Industry RS
Rank
Last
Close
CYRX 9.15 169,658 CryoPort - Inc. - Common Stock Packaging & Containers 97 8.45
WTW 52.07 2,142,432 Weight Watchers International Inc Weight Watchers Personal Services 97 46.91
PETS 49.04 831,672 PetMed Express - Inc. - Common Stock Drug Delivery 95 48.33
These stocks meet our suggested screening factors for our Cup and Handle Chart Pattern watchlist.
See Revised Rules for Trading Cup and Handle Breakouts
Major Index Summary
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend1
Dow 25295.9
2.33% 2.33% Up
NASDAQ 7136.56
3.38% 3.38% Up
S&P 500 2743.15
2.6% 2.6% Up
1The Market Trend is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site here.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite Dow Jones
11.08 %
Dow Jones
18.13 %
NASDAQ Composite
3.38 %
Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Auto Parts Wholesale
Auto Parts Wholesale
Auto Parts Wholesale
Aluminum
Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Auto Parts Stores
86
Auto Parts Stores
83
Publishing - Books
147
Wholesale - Other
215
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

 

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