Weekly Newsletter 05/17/08
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Market Summary

Nasdaq Market Signal Switches to 'Enter'

Because the NASDAQ is more volatile than the DJI and S&P 500, our market model is very conservative about when to recommend re-entering the market. To avoid false signals and subsequent whip-lashing, the model requires that the index be above its 200-day moving average before declaring a follow through day. That hurdle was overcome this week and our model signaled an 'enter'. That resistance point now becomes a support level and it was tested on Friday following the release of the housing data, but recovered to close above the 200 dma.

NASDAQ

We continue to be cautious about the rally because the signs are that the economy is continuing to weaken despite the bullish spin put on Friday's housing starts numbers. A more sanguine view was presented on Barry Ritholz's blog where he asked the question "Does this look like a bottom to you?". If you look at the chart he presents I think you'll agree that the housing crisis still has further to go and its effects will continue to be painful on main street. The mortgage banks and other Wall Street players are backstopped by the Fed, which continues to expand the money supply, so we repeat the view we expressed two weeks ago that the market's will continue rise. However, there are encouraging signs that there may be help on the way for delinquent homeowners. Nouriel Roubini favors the Frank-Dodd mortgage bailout plan and reports that a broad consensus is emerging among economists of the left and right that something along the lines of Dodd's plan should be enacted. Regardless of one's views on the merits of the plan, if it does come to pass, then the recession will be less deep than it otherwise might have been, which is also positive for equities.

The number of breakouts continues to increase with thirty-nine confirmed this week compared to the three month average of just 21.

Following an attack on our server by hackers we have moved to a new, more powerful hardware platform. The transition was difficult and accounts for why you did not receive a newsletter last week. We worked hard to keep the service operational and there was minimal disruption to daily service and email alerts. Nevertheless regular subscribers have received a 7-day addition to their subscription to compensate for any inconvenience they may have suffered.

 

 

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No New Features this Week

 

 

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

No Tip This Week

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 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Market1
Signal
Dow 12986.8 1.89% -2.1% enter
NASDAQ 2528.85 3.41% -4.65% enter
S&P 500 1425.35 2.67% -2.93% enter
Russell 2000 741.17 2.93% -3.25% N/A
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
3.41 %
NASDAQ Composite
5.17 %
Dow Jones
-1.44 %
Dow Jones
-2.1 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
REIT - Healthcare Facilities REIT - Healthcare Facilities REIT - Healthcare Facilities Major Integrated Oil & Gas
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Aluminum
+ 54
Aluminum
+ 99
Long Distance Carriers
+ 213
Long Distance Carriers
+ 210
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone (similar to IBD). The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 39 22.23 4.51% 2.24%
Last Week 28 20 10.09% 7.01%
13 Weeks 298 23 13.17%
7.06%
Sector
Industry
Breakout Count for Week
TRANSPORTATION
Shipping
4
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Diversified Communication Services
2
BANKING
Savings & Loans
1
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES
Business Software & Services
1
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES
Healthcare Information Services
1
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES
Information Technology
1
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES
Multimedia & Graphics Software
1
CONSUMER DURABLES
Electronic Equipment
1
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES
Packaging & Containers
1
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES
Technical Services
1
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES
Education & Training Services
1
DRUGS
Biotechnology
1
ELECTRONICS
Semiconductor - Specialized
1
ELECTRONICS
Scientific & Technical Instruments
1
ELECTRONICS
Semiconductor - Memory Chips
1
ELECTRONICS
Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits
1
ENERGY
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
1
ENERGY
Oil & Gas Pipelines
1
ENERGY
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration
1
FINANCIAL SERVICES
Closed-End Fund - Equity
1
FOOD & BEVERAGE
Processed & Packaged Goods
1
FOOD & BEVERAGE
Beverages - Soft Drinks
1
HEALTH SERVICES
Home Health Care
1
HEALTH SERVICES
Medical Instruments & Supplies
1
INTERNET
Internet Service Providers
1
INTERNET
Internet Software & Services
1
LEISURE
Restaurants
1
MANUFACTURING
Industrial Electrical Equipment
1
MANUFACTURING
Industrial Equipment & Components
1
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION
Heavy Construction
1
METALS & MINING
Copper
1
METALS & MINING
Steel & Iron
1
REAL ESTATE
REIT - Diversified
1
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Communication Equipment
1
WHOLESALE
Basic Materials Wholesale
1
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall NLS Nautilus Group Inc (the) 117
Top Technical NETM Netmanage Inc 102
Top Fundamental RICK Rick's Caberet Intl 79
Top Tech. & Fund. AAPL Apple Computer Inc 40
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall MELA Electro-Optical Sciences Inc 100
Top Technical SNHY Sun Hydraulics Corp 62
Top Fundamental BKC Burger King Holdings Inc 54
Top Tech. & Fund. SNHY Sun Hydraulics Corp 62
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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