Weekly Newsletter 03/13/15
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You are receiving this email because you are or were a BreakoutWatch.com subscriber, or have subscribed to our weekly newsletter. This newsletter summarizes the breakout events of the week and provides additional guidance that does not fit into our daily format. It is published each weekend.
Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Twin fears roiled the markets this week. Investors worried that the Fed may announce a change in interest rate policy at next weeks Open Markets Committee meeting and the rising dollar compared to all international currencies, particularly the Euro, threatens profits for companies with global  interests. As a result our market trend signals for the large cap indexes, DJI and S&P 500, turned negative this week. The NASDAQ trend signal remains positive. The NASDAQ moved sideways this week as can be seen from the chart below and remains above its primary support level  at 4814 and also the 50 day moving average.
NASDAQ Comp
 Weekly Breakout Report  

  Despite the sideways movement, the number of breakouts held steady with 24 this week compared to 25 last week. Only 4 stocks were below their breakout price at Friday's close and the average gain for the week improved from 1.2% to 2.7%.

Breakouts for Week Beginning 03/09/15
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
03/12/15 EGRX HTF N 38.98 45.37 99.00 46.09 18.24 18.24
03/10/15 HPTX CwH N 30.17 32.82 88.00 35.12 16.41 17.1
03/11/15 SLXP CwH N 158.01 168.61 95.00 169.4 7.21 7.62
03/12/15 OLED CwH N 38.87 40.09 92.00 41.63 7.10 7.1
03/10/15 OTIC CwH N 37.08 39.48 95.00 39.36 6.15 6.47
03/11/15 CRESY CwH N 12.50 12.50 84.00 13.06 4.48 5.76
03/09/15 UTIW CwH N 13.24 13.92 80.00 13.38 1.06 5.14
03/09/15 AIR CwH N 31.55 31.98 83.00 32.99 4.56 4.56
03/11/15 PLOW CwH N 23.03 23.78 84.00 22.74 -1.26 3.26
03/13/15 GHDX SQZ Y 32.58 33.45 74.00 33.45 2.67 2.67
03/13/15 MAC CwH N 92.76 94.39 93.00 94.39 1.76 1.76
03/12/15 BSFT CwH N 33.07 33.40 90.00 33.64 1.72 1.72
03/12/15 DG CwH N 73.09 74.28 81.00 74.3 1.66 1.66
03/13/15 SBNY SQZ Y 129.33 131.32 70.00 131.32 1.54 1.54
03/11/15 BNO HSB N 21.32 21.64 5.00 20.39 -4.36 1.5
03/13/15 XNPT SQZ Y 7.43 7.51 87.00 7.51 1.08 1.08
03/13/15 PGNX CwH N 7.03 7.09 91.00 7.09 0.85 0.85
03/11/15 STM CwH N 9.37 9.43 81.00 9.21 -1.71 0.64
03/09/15 MERC CwH Y 14.42 14.51 94.00 13.94 -3.33 0.62
03/12/15 SMP CwH N 42.61 42.82 80.00 41.87 -1.74 0.49
03/13/15 SANM SQZ Y 23.84 23.93 71.00 23.93 0.38 0.38
03/13/15 CCXI SQZ Y 8.86 8.89 95.00 8.89 0.34 0.34
03/09/15 RRD CwH N 19.64 19.69 84.00 19.46 -0.92 0.25
03/13/15 PRSC CwH N 46.07 46.17 91.00 46.17 0.22 0.22
Weekly Average (24 breakouts) 2.67 3.79
*RS Rank on day before breakout.

 
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

SqueezePlay is Back

The SqueezePlay watchlist (now called Volatility Squeeze on our menu) had not been updated since January 23 following the introduction of the "percent below breakout price" metric. That metric introduced a bug into the volatility squeeze code that has now been corrected and the watchlist is up-to-date.
 
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site
Breakoutwatch Strategies for New (and old) Subscribers

A new subscriber asked me for a suggested strategy for stocks on the the Alert Monitor. I replied that the site offers an information service not specific recommendations so each subscriber must determine their own strategy based on their personal investment style, risk tolerance, investment goals, and so on. I referred him to our newsletter articles for for insights into what does and doesn't work.

There are now 491 newsletters in our archive, so that could be a lot of reading so I have developed a list of the most important articles. Here they are:

Long Position Trading

Options Trading


Additionally, each watchlist has a "methodology" page and "Trading Hints" page which can also be helpful.

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 17749.3 -0.6% -0.41% Down
NASDAQ 4871.76 -1.13% 2.87% Up
S&P 500 2053.4 -0.86% -0.27% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
-0.6 %
NASDAQ Composite
4.69 %
NASDAQ Composite
6.66 %
NASDAQ Composite
2.87 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Toy & Hobby Stores Toy & Hobby Stores Toy & Hobby Stores Toy & Hobby Stores
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Investment Brokerage - Regional
+ 52
Office Supplies
+ 127
Music & Video Stores
+ 156
Grocery Stores
+ 175
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall RAD Rite Aid Corporation 103
Top Technical RAD Rite Aid Corporation 103
Top Fundamental MDXG MiMedx Group, Inc 88
Top Tech. & Fund. SHPG Shire plc 36
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall PGNX Progenics Pharmaceuticals Inc. 99
Top Technical BSFT BroadSoft, Inc. 42
Top Fundamental DG Dollar General Corporation 41
Top Tech. & Fund. PRSC The Providence Service Corporation 49
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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Long Position Trading
Why stocks with an RS Rank > 90 have a Higher Probability of Success
NASDAQ Delivers More Breakouts and Higher Returns
Breakoutwatch as a Tool for the CAN SLIM Investor
Influence of Pivot Position and Performance After Breakout
How to Trade Cup and Handle Stocks for Optimal Returns
How to Find Cup and Handle breakouts with a 90% Chance of Success
Important Strategy Revisions
What should be your target gain?

Options Trading
Why the Cup and Handle with Squeeze works for Options Trading
Historical Volatility for Options Trading
Probability of being 'In the Money" on Squeeze Play Alert